GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat and soybeans saw corrective strength overnight while corn struggled to garner much bullish momentum. Export sales coming in the lower end of expectations weighed on grain prices this morning. Outside markets are mixed as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower and near recent lows and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 150 points lower.
Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 196.8 million bu. of soybeans during October, which would be a record for any month, eclipsing 196.4 million bu. in March. At the expected level, crush would increase 19.5 million bu. (11.0%) from September and 7 million bu. (3.7%) from last year. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise for the first time in seven months to 1.090 billion pounds.
The biofuels industry is urging lawmakers to extend the blenders tax credit due to delays in Treasury guidance for the new Section 45Z credit, set to replace it next year. The 2022 tax law’s new clean fuel production credit bases incentives on carbon intensity scores, but producers lack clarity on compliance, causing market disruptions and plant closures. Clean Fuels Alliance America, joined by 10 associations, petitioned Congress for a one-year extension, highlighting widespread confusion and economic risks.
Export sales for the week ended Nov. 7:
Corn: Net sales of 1.315 MMT for 2024-25, down 53% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for unknown destinations and Mexico. Sales were in the lower end of expectations ranging from 1.25 to 2.6 MMT. Exports totaled 698,600 MT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 1.555 MMT for 2024-25, down 24% from the previous week and the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China, Egypt and Spain. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from 1.0 to 2.2 MMT. Exports totaled 2.341 MMT and continue to be near this year’s peak.
Wheat: Net sales of 380,100 MT for 2024-25, up 1% from the previous week but down 17% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea and Japan. Sales came in the middle of expectations ranging from 250,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 301,300 MT.
CORN: December corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold 40-day moving average support at $4.17 1/2. Resistance comes in at $4.21 1/2 then $4.25 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures bounced overnight. Initial resistance stands at the psychological $10.00 mark, which is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $10.04 1/2, then $10.14. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $9.86 1/4 then the contract low of $9.73 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures posted modest corrective gains overnight. Support stems from Thursday’s close of $5.30 1/4, which is backed by $5.25. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at $5.41, which is backed by the psychological $5.50 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower in a continuation of Thursday’s selling pressure. Waning cash fundamentals continue to weigh heavily on cattle futures, though discounts to the cash market could limit losses following the open. Cash cattle trade picked up the past couple of days, averaging around $185.00, down about $1.50 from last week’s five-area weighted average. Packer purchases remain relatively light as feedlots are hesitant to move cattle at lower prices. Wholesale beef prices continue to sink, with Choice falling $3.14 to $303.80 and Select dropping $2.00 to $276.66 Thursday. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,200 MT for 2024, up 78% from the previous week and 8% higher than the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of Thursday’s sharp selling pressure. December futures broke below long-term trendline support in Thursday’s selloff, spurred by weakening cash prices. Pork cutout fell $3.19 to $94.07 on Thursday, the lowest level since Sept. 24, pressured by a $20.78 plunge in primal bellies. Belly prices have plummeted $46.46 from their Nov. 1 peak to the lowest level since Sept. 25. Strong pork cutout has helped support the contra-seasonal rise in the CME lean hog index, but the weaker cutout points to the potential return of seasonal weakness. The index is down 16 cents to $89.78 as of Nov. 13. USDA reported net pork sales of 19,800 MT for 2024, up notably from the previous week’s net reductions.