GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat continues to see relative weakness while corn and soybeans faced modest selling pressure overnight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released producer price inflation (PPI) this morning, which showed producer prices increasing 0.2% month-over-month in October, above an upwardly revised 0.1% in September. Annual PPI came in above expectations at 3.1%, showing stickier-than-expected inflation. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are posting modest gains and the U.S. dollar index is over 350 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 176,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year. The weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday as government offices were closed on Monday for Veterans Day.
Conab increased its 2024-25 Brazil soybean crop forecast by 140,000 MT from last month to 166.14 MMT. Soybean plantings are expected to rise 2.6% to 47.35 million hectares, up from 47.33 million hectares expected last month. Conab also inched up the Brazilian corn crop forecast by 70,000 MT to 119.81 MMT. Despite the slightly bigger production forecast, Conab lowered its 2024-25 soybean export outlook to 105.47 MMT, down 70,000 MT from last month. Conab left its 2024-25 corn export forecast at 34 MMT.
A win by GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona gave Republicans the 218 seats needed for a majority of the House’s 435 lawmakers, the Associated Press projected late Wednesday. Democrats have so far won 208 seats, while some contests are still uncalled. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) acknowledged the outcome, noting Democrats’ efforts and emphasizing the razor-thin GOP majority. Key Republican wins included flipping districts in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado, while Democrats made gains in New York and redistricted Alabama and Louisiana. With a narrow majority, the GOP faces challenges enacting President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda, though House leadership vows readiness to pursue aggressive tax, immigration, and energy reforms starting in January.
Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) introduced legislation to revoke normal trade relations with China, imposing steep tariffs of 35% on non-strategic goods and 100% on strategic imports, gradually phasing in over five years. If passed, his proposal, which also ends de minimis treatment for low-value Chinese imports, is likely to trigger a trade war, with anticipated Chinese retaliation potentially affecting U.S. industries such as agriculture. Revenue from tariffs would support impacted American farmers and manufacturers. Moolenaar’s bill aligns with past calls for similar measures by Trump-aligned figures and faces mixed reception due to potential cost impacts.
CORN: December corn futures traded within Wednesday’s range overnight. The overnight high of $4.28 stands as initial resistance, while the for-the-move high close stands as resistance above that mark at $4.31. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.24 1/4, which is backed by the 20-day moving average at $4.21.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures struggled to maintain early overnight corrective strength. Resistance stands at the 40-day moving average at $10.16, which is backed by last week’s for-the-move high close of $10.30 1/4. Support stands at yesterday’s low of $10.01 3/4, which coincides with the psychological $10.00 mark, while continued weakness finds support at $9.88 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to see relative weakness. Yesterday’s low capped selling efforts overnight, which stands as support at $5.36 1/4. Additional weakness finds support at $5.33. Meanwhile, bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $5.50.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by technical selling and weakening cash fundamentals. February live cattle futures met and failed to overcome technical resistance yesterday at the 10-day moving average, confirming the near-term downtrend and likely bringing followthrough selling today. The drop in wholesale beef values, as Choice dropped $1.33 to $306.94 and Select fell $1.26 to $278.66 Wednesday, continues to push packer margins deeper into the red. Despite poor margins, packers’ inquiry into cash cattle increased Wednesday, stoking hopes for steady prices.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Wednesday’s late strength in December futures. December lean hogs ended Wednesday near session highs, despite trading much lower earlier in the session as futures were supported by resurgent strength in the cash market. The CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $89.94 as of Nov. 12, pausing the recent slide. Pork cutout fell 42 cents to $97.26 despite climbing in early trade yesterday, with losses in all cuts except loins, marking a $4.89 loss over the past week.