GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 6 to 8 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat continues to lead weakness with corn and soybeans following to the downside overnight. Corn continues to show relative strength but is struggling to work higher amidst outside market weakness. Front-month crude oil futures are consolidating near recent low while the U.X. dollar index is around 150 points lower, though still near recent highs.
USDA reported daily sales of 401,357 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico and 290,820 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop 44% “good” to “excellent,” and 18% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 11.9 points to 320.2, which is now 1.3 points above year-ago. The SRW rating increased 8.2 points to 371.4, still 4.4 points below year-ago. Top producers Kansas (HRW) and Illinois (SRW) led the weekly crop improvement. Click here for details.
China’s soybean imports will drop to 98.8 MMT in 2024-25 from 109.4 MMT last year, an executive of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) said. The COFCO executive did not provide reasons for the anticipated drop in soybean imports but said they would need to see if buyers are willing to take on U.S. cargoes. “If we look at the long-term trend, looking at December and January shipping schedules, profit margins from U.S. soybeans are relatively good. But we have to monitor the effectiveness of the profit margins – whether people will dare to buy U.S. soybeans,” the official said. China’s ag ministry forecasts soybean imports will fall to 94.6 MMT in 2024-25 from 104.74 MMT last year.
Winter wheat seedings in Russia will shrink to 15.4 million hectares in 2025-26, the lowest since 2018-19, according to Igor Pavensky, an expert at Russian grain carrier Rusagrotrans. Drought in key regions restricted winter wheat plantings this fall. He forecasts Russia’s total grain production for 2025-26 at around 133 MMT, including 84.5 MMT of wheat.
CORN: December corn futures continue to be dragged lower by beans and wheat. Initial support stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.24, which is backed by $4.21 1/2. Resistance stands at Friday’s close of $4.31.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures trended lower overnight. Initial support stems from the overnight low of $10.03 1/4, which is quickly backed by the psychological $10.00 mark. Resistance comes in at $10.16 1/2, the 40-day moving average.
WHEAT: December SRW futures faced followthrough selling overnight. Bulls are looking to hold downtrend support at $5.35 on continued weakness. Resistance stands at $5.50 then the Oct. 28 low of $5.57 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to erode. Wholesale beef prices ended Tuesday mixed, though still near recent lows. Choice cutout firmed 6 cents to $308.27 while Select sunk $1.92 to $279.92. The recent weakness in the wholesale beef market has pushed packer margins solidly into the red, around $50 per head, according to HedgersEdge.com. That’s likely to keep packers cautious with cattle bids, pushing trade late into the week, especially given the recent strong string of purchases.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by weakening cash fundamentals. December futures saw an increase in selling pressure in the latter half of yesterday’s session. Steep discounts to the cash market could limit selling interest, but resurgent seasonal weakness has garnered a lot of attention. The CME lean hog index is down another 14 cents to $89.88 as of Nov. 11, the third straight daily decline. Wholesale pork prices continue to be volatile, falling $3.78 to $97.68 Tuesday, the lowest level since Oct. 23. Losses in bellies and loins led cutout lower yesterday.