Ahead of the Open | November 12, 2024

Soybeans favored the downside most of the overnight session but strength in corn led buying interest in soybeans and wheat into the break.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.

Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.

Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans favored the downside most of the overnight session but strength in corn led buying interest in soybeans and wheat into the break. Corn is trading near Friday’s report driven high, how it reacts there will be key to today’s price action. Given yesterday’s government holiday. USDA will release weekly inspections and crop progress updates today. Front-month crude oil futures saw modest profit taking following recent selling pressure and the U.S. dollar continues to march higher, up over 250 points.

USDA reported daily sales of 110,500 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year.

President-elect Donald Trump has selected Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who is a NATO critic and China hawk, to serve as his national security advisor. He is expected to tab Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), another China hawk, as Secretary of State. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem reportedly will be the next head of the Department of Homeland Security. Trump also plans to name longtime aide Stephen Miller as White House deputy chief of staff for policy.

South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 165 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn. His bias moved to neutral/higher for soybeans given the recent surge in plantings, generally good condition of the crop and favorable forecast for most of Brazil. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn.

China is willing to resolve differences and strengthen communications with the U.S. to jointly promote stable, healthy and sustainable economic and trade relations, Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said. Meanwhile, the most important task for Russia and China is to counter any attempt by the U.S. to contain their countries, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Chinese foreign minister.

CORN: December corn futures saw relative strength overnight. Resistance stands at the for-the-move high of $4.34 3/4, which finds little backing until $4.43. Support stands at yesterday’s low of $4.26 1/2 then the Oct. 24 high at $4.24.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw modest followthrough selling overnight. Continued selling finds support at the 40-day moving average at $10.17 1/4 then $10.08 3/4. Resistance stands at the for-the-move high close of $10.30 1/4 then the Nov. 8 high of $10.44.

WHEAT: December SRW futures saw muted volatility overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.70 and is backed by the 40-day moving average at $5.75 3/4, which capped gains the past few weeks. Support comes in at $5.62 then yesterday’s low of $5.51 3/4.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Choppy/lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s late rebound off the lows. December live cattle futures marked a fresh for-the-move low yesterday though closed near midrange. Last week’s cash cattle average fell $3.29 to $186.53, the second consecutive weekly decline. Traders are anticipating continued weakness in the cash cattle market, as packers have plentiful near-term supplies, keeping cash cattle prices under pressure. Wholesale beef prices rebounded modestly Monday, with Choice cutout firming 28 cents to $308.21 and Select climbing $2.65 to $281.84.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, pressured by resurgent seasonal weakness in cash fundamentals. December lean hog futures rebounded on Monday, though gains stopped shy of the technical resistance zone that capped most of the upside last week, which is likely to continue to weigh on futures. The CME lean hog index is down 41 cents to $90.02 as of Nov. 8, the second consecutive daily decline. Pork cutout fell 92 cents to $101.46, driven lower by weakness in bellies. Belly prices have been volatile and will likely continue to drive price action in the near term.