Ahead of the Open | November 11, 2024

Soybeans saw continued strength overnight while wheat saw heavy selling pressure. Corn was caught between the two, favoring the downside into the break.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.

Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.

Wheat: SRW 12 to 14 cents lower; HRW 9 to 11 cents lower; HRS 8 to 10 cents lower.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw continued strength overnight while wheat saw heavy selling pressure. Corn was caught between the two, favoring the downside into the break. Trade is likely to be lower volume than usual given the holiday. Front-month crude oil futures are undergoing heavy selling pressure this morning in a continuation of Friday’s weakness, while the U.S. dollar index is around 600 points higher and the highest mark in over four months.

Government offices are closed for the federal holiday but grain and livestock markets are open. We’ll have a full slate of Pro Farmer market reports throughout the day. Pro Farmer salutes all those who served this great country so we can enjoy freedom.

Congress returns on Tuesday for the lame-duck session with a focus on working on fiscal year 2025 funding. With the White House, Senate and a likely Republican-controlled House, GOP lawmakers plan to pass another continuing resolution to defer budget negotiations until March, enabling time for President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet confirmations and tax legislation moves. President Joe Biden will host Trump at the White House on Wednesday for their first post-election meeting, setting in motion the U.S. transition of power that will be completed in January. Trump will continue to announce key personnel decisions as he emphasized the need for immediate staffing, criticizing past delays. The economic focus will be consumer inflation data on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. Due to today’s federal holiday, weekly export inspections and crop progress reports will be released on Tuesday and weekly export sales data will be pushed to Friday.

Brazilian producers had planted 67% of estimated soybean area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, up 13 percentage points for the week and six points ahead of year-ago. The firm said planting was in the final stretch in Mato Grosso and Paraná, the two largest production states. Corn planting advanced to 72%, four points behind last year.

CORN: December corn futures were caught between soy strength and wheat weakness overnight. Resistance stands at Friday’s high of $4.34 3/4. Continued selling pressure finds support at $4.25 then the 10-day moving average at $4.22 1/2.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw continued strength overnight. Prior support, now resistance at $10.40 stands firm, which is reinforced by the psychological $10.50 mark. A resurgence of selling pressure finds support at $10.25 then the 40-day moving average at $10.17 1/2.

WHEAT: December SRW futures saw heavy selling pressure overnight. Prices tested downtrend support at $5.56 overnight, which stands as initial support. Additional selling finds support at $5.50. Resistance stands at $5.69 3/4, the 1-day moving average, then $5.76.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Lower.

HOGS: Choppy/lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower as followthrough selling following Friday’s breakdown is likely. December live cattle futures broke down from a bear flag on the daily bar chart. The breakdown is likely to weigh heavily on futures today. Last week’s cash cattle average is likely to drop for the second consecutive week, though trade heading into Friday remained light, especially when compared to the prior couple of weeks. Wholesale beef prices extended Thursday’s steep slide, with Choice falling another $1.53 to $307.93 and Select dipping 53 cents to $279.19.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on followthrough selling, though relative strength in pork could limit losses after the open. After rising for 15 straight days, the CME lean hog index is down 18 cents to $90.43 as of Nov. 7. Traders are anticipating continued weakness in the index, with December futures settling $10.005 below today’s cash quote on Friday. Pork cutout rebounded $4.42 to $102.38 following a steep decline on Thursday, led by a $19.54 jump in primal bellies, though all cuts except loins boasted gains Friday.