GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight with corn and wheat both following to the upside. Outside markets saw a volatile morning as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 12k jobs were added in the U.S. in October, well below a downwardly revised 223k jobs in September and forecasts of 113k. That marks the lowest jobs growth since December 2020. Poor growth gives some confidence that the Federal Reserve could be pushed to make additional rate cuts in their November meeting next week. Front-month crude oil futures are solidly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 781,322 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 715,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year and 65,532 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA also reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 198,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations—each for delivery in 2024-25. Sales of 30,000 MT of soyoil to India during 2024-25 were also reported.
Analysts expect USDA to report September soybean crush totaled a record 187.6 million bu., which would be up 20.1 million bu. (12%) from August and 12.8 million bu. (7.3%) from year-ago. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to be 447.8 million bu., which would be down 24.9 million bu. (5.3%) from August but up 19.4 million bu. (4.5%) from last year.
Ukraine’s October grain exports rose 58.6% from last year to 3.95 MMT. That included 1.64 MMT of wheat, 1.92 MMT of corn and 376,000 MT of barley. In the first four months of 2024-25, Ukraine shipped 14.4 MMT of grain – including 7.7 MMT of wheat, 4.7 MMT of corn and 1.7 MMT of barley – up 5.2 MMT (56.5%) from the same period last year.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump plan to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), raising concerns for Canada and Mexico, whose economies are deeply intertwined with the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reports. Canada, which sends 80% of its exports to the U.S., is lobbying to preserve its $900 billion trade relationship, while Mexico eyes preserving its vehicle-manufacturing industry and addressing U.S. demands on Chinese imports.
CORN: December corn futures continue to see limited volatility. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at this week’s high of $4.14 3/4. Support comes in at $4.10, which is closely backed by yesterday’s low of $4.09 1/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures led strength overnight. Bulls found resistance at the Oct. 24 close at $10.02 1/2. Additional strength sees resistance at $10.18. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $9.97 then $9.93 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: December SRW futures posted gains overnight, overcoming downtrend resistance at $5.69. Bulls will seek to close prices above that mark, while additional resistance lies at $5.80 1/2. Support lies at yesterday’s low of $5.63 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by relative strength in the cash cattle market. Cash cattle trade thus far this week is down just 26 cents from a week ago, despite a steep drop in futures. Price action in December live cattle futures seemed to reflect strength in the cash cattle market, as traders failed to push prices below Wednesday’s low. Still, lower wholesale beef prices are weighing on futures, as Choice cutout fell another $1.84 to $317.60 while Select plunged $3.95 to $285.37.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, in a continuation of Thursday’s corrective pullback in the December contract. December futures underwent selling pressure on Thursday after marking a fresh contract high early in the session. That is despite continued strength in the CME lean hog index, which is up another $1.15 to $87.93 as of Oct. 30, the highest quote since Aug. 22. The index has climbed for 10 consecutive days, gaining $4.07 over that period. Pork cutout climbed $1.54 to $103.15, the highest since Aug. 5, as all cuts posted daily gains.