GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 10 to 12 cents higher; HRW 14 to 16 cents higher; HRS
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each posted gains most of the overnight session though selling took corn and beans lower into the break, while wheat maintained gains. Modest volatility has returned to the marketplace as sellers in bonds have resurfaced. Front-month crude oil futures continue to bounce from recent lows while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 75 points lower. Precious metals are showing robust strength this morning.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn crop estimate by 2.5 MMT to 47.5 MMT amid leafhopper damage that causes corn stunt disease. It said the disease has damaged around 20% of the country’s corn crop this year and under normal conditions, production should have topped 61 MMT. The exchange left its Argentine soybean crop estimate at 50 MMT, though it noted rains have slowed harvest.
Three of Russia’s key grain-producing regions declared a state of emergency, citing May frosts that have caused severe damage to crops. The central regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov – part of Russia’s fertile Black Earth region – imposed emergency measures. In mid-April, Russia’s ag ministry forecast the 2024 grain crop may drop to 132 MMT from 144.9 MMT in 2023, with a further reduction now expected. Russia will provide “all necessary resources” for farmers in regions hit by killing frosts/freezes to re-sow crops, state news agency TASS quoted the agriculture ministry as saying.
Argentina’s oilseed union SOEA will join a national one-day strike today alongside other unions who upset over proposed labor reforms backed by President Javier Milei.
Export sales for the week ended May 2:
Corn: Net sales of 889,200 MT for 2023-24, up 17% from the previous week and 23% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Japan. Traders expected 600,000 MT to 1.1 MMT for 2023-24. Exports of 1.231 MMT fell 11% from the previous week and 21% from the four-week average.
Soybeans: Net sales of 428,900 MT for 2023-24, up 4% from the previous week and 21% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for unknown destinations and Egypt. Traders expected 250,000 to 600,000 MT for 2023-24. Exports of 304,500 MT, up 13% from last week’s marketing-year low but down 27% from the four-week average.
Wheat: Net sales of 41,100 MT for 2023-24 and net sales of 406,000 MT for 2024-25. Traders expected (100,000) to 100,000 MT for 2023-24 and 200,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 337,500 MT were down 34% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,080 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 60,960 MT is slated for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year with the remaining 71,120 MT is for the 2024-25 marketing year.
CORN: July corn futures saw selling pressure into the break. Initial resistance stems from $4.62 1/2, which capped gains overnight. Further buying finds resistance at $4.69. Support stands at the 10-day moving average at $4.57 1/2, which capped losses the last two sessions, firmly backed by $4.54 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures traded higher most of the overnight session though turned lower this morning. Initial resistance stems from the overnight high of $12.36 3/4 and is reinforced by $12.48 3/4. Support comes in at $12.22 3/4, the 100-day moving average, with backing from the 10-day moving average at $12.12 1/2.
WHEAT: July SRW futures negated Wednesday’s losses overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at $6.48 3/4, which is quickly backed by the psychological $6.50 mark. Further buying eyes resistance at Tuesday’s high of $6.53 3/4. Support comes in at $6.33 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $6.24 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a weaker tone as futures continue to erode technically. Despite starting with light activity on Monday, cash cattle trade has been slow to develop this week as packers have not been aggressive with bids and feedlots are in no hurry to move cattle unless prices rise from week-ago. At this point, it seems active trade will not develop until Friday. After starting strong early this week, wholesale beef prices have turned lower, as Choice cutout fell $1.82 Wednesday to $296.67 and Select dropped $4.09 to $288.25, though movement improved to 145 loads. USDA reported net beef sales of 12,300 MT for 2024, down 45% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as prices are attempting to form a low on the daily bar chart, though continued pessimism over the cash outlook could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up 25 cents to $91.28 as of May 7 as it continues to hold just under the short-term top posted in late April. Wholesale pork values posted gains on Wednesday though continue to struggle breaking above the $100.00 mark, as cutout rose $2.20 to $99.29, driven higher by jumps in bellies and loins, which continue to be volatile and the primary drivers of daily moves for cutout. USDA reported net pork sales of 24,400 MT for 2024, down 27% from the previous week and 26% from the four-week average.