GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw an increase of buying interest this morning, with corn leading the way higher. Wheat saw relative weakness but went into the break well off session lows. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are seeing corrective buying off recent lows and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points lower.
House Ag Committee to markup $1.51 trillion farm bill proposal today. The nearly 940-page bill includes provisions for farm, food safety and nutrition programs, with a five-year reauthorization period. House Republicans are striving for bipartisan support but face significant Democratic opposition, particularly over proposed freezes to SNAP payments, changes to environmental and conservation programs, and restricting the Ag secretary’s use of Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funding. Ag panel Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson has been actively trying to secure support from vulnerable Democrats. Despite efforts, including a meeting with four key Democrats — Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Nikki Budzinski (Ill.), Andrea Salinas (Ore.), and Eric Sorensen (Ill.) — the bid was unsuccessful. Democrats are expected to propose significant amendments during the markup, which Republicans are unlikely to support.
Germany’s wheat production is expected to fall 5.6% from last year to 20.31 MMT, the country’s association of farm cooperatives said, though that’s up from its prior forecast of 20.16 MMT. It forecast Germany’s winter rapeseed crop at 3.87 MMT, down 8.4% from last year and slightly smaller than the previous projection of 3.93 MMT. The association said reduced plantings was the driver of the sharp year-over-year projected declines in production.
Much of the Midwest was dry Wednesday and saw improving to favorable conditions for planting, says World Weather Inc. Regular rounds of rain are expected into Sunday, keeping planting to a minimum, while the northwestern Corn Belt is likely to see the least rain this weekend where fieldwork should advance, says the forecaster.
Export sales for the week ended May 16:
Corn: Net sales of 911,200 MT for 2023-24, up 23% from the previous week but down 1% from the four-week average. Traders expected 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT for 2023-24. Exports of 1.449 MMT were up 52% from the previous week and 28% from the four-week average.
Soybeans: Net sales of 279,400 MT for 2023-24, up 5% from the previous week but down 15% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, unknown destinations and Egypt. Traders expected 275,000 to 550,000 MT for 2023-24. Exports of 258,800 MT—a marketing year low, down 42% from last week and 28% from the four-week average.
Wheat: Net sales of 17,900 MT for 2023-24 and net sales of 224,900 MT for 2024-25. Traders expected (100,000) to 100,000 MT for 2023-24 and 200,000 to 650,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 197,200 MT were down 56% from the previous week and 58% from the four-week average.
CORN: July corn futures led strength overnight. Resistance stands at $4.69 then the May 13 for-the-move high of $4.75 1/2. Bulls are seeking to maintain prices above the 10-day moving average at $4.60 3/4, which is backed by support at $4.55 3/4.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures broke out from a bull-flag overnight. Initial resistance stems from the May 7 high of $12.56 1/2, which is backed by $12.75. Bulls seeking to keep prices above initial support at $12.45, or it would indicate a false breakout. Further support stands at the 10-day moving average at $12.33.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw action on both sides of unchanged overnight. Bulls continue to struggle against psychological resistance at the $7.00 mark, with additional resistance stemming from yesterday’s high of $7.16 3/4. Support stands at $6.87, former resistance now support, then the 10-day moving average at $6.75.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on continued fundamental and technical strength, though conditions are nearing overbought on the daily bar chart, which could limit gains after the open. Despite a Cattle on Feed Report tomorrow and strong gains for four consecutive weeks, cash cattle trade started off higher this week, averaging $191.86 so far, well above the current record of $189.56. Wholesale pork prices saw modest pressure on Wednesday, as Choice cutout fell 85 cents to $312.17 and Select sunk $1.26 to $299.61. Despite weaker prices, movement was strong at 133 loads, indicating packers were taking advantage of the recent rally by moving more beef. USDA reported net beef sales of 21,500 MT for 2024, up 42% from the previous week and 32% from the 4-week average. Exports of 17,300 MT were a marketing-year high.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective buying, as prices hover near oversold levels on the daily bar chart. June futures have now alternated between higher and lower closes for 10 consecutive sessions. The CME lean hog index is down another 19 cents to $91.82 as of May 21, marking the third consecutive daily decline, though the index has only lost 47 cents over that span. Wholesale pork prices sunk 62 cents to $100.07 Wednesday, led lower by ribs, though all cuts except loins and bellies posted losses. USDA reported net pork sales of 26,300 MT for 2024, up 24% from the previous week but down 3% from the four-week average.