GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw continued selling pressure overnight, while wheat posted modest corrective gains. Each saw selling pressure into the break. Outside markets were quiet overnight, as front-month crude oil futures posted mild corrective losses from recent gains and the U.S. dollar index traded near unchanged.
Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 178.1 million bu. of soybeans during February. That would be down 4.2% from January but up 7.6% from last year and a record for the month, easily topping the current high of 166.3 million bu. in 2020. Soyoil stocks at the end of February are expected to total 1.591 billion lbs., which would be up 5.6% from January but down 12.1% from last year.
The U.S. ag attaché in Argentina lowered its forecast for the country’s soybean crop to 49.5 MMT, down 500,000 MT from USDA’s official forecast, as “a hot and dry spell hit the region in January and early February stressing the crop in a crucial growth stage.”
Legislation allowing year-round sales of E15 is facing obstacles in the Senate, according to Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), the bill’s author. Despite support from agriculture and petroleum oil companies, the measure is stuck in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, chaired by Senator Tom Carper (D-Del.). In remarks to Bloomberg, Fischer expressed hope that Carper, who is not seeking re-election, will eventually support the bill. The Biden administration reportedly backs this legislative solution. Some independent refiners oppose E15 legislation and seek broader changes to the nation’s renewable fuels mandate, which Carper has shown sympathy towards.
This morning, USDA reported daily export sales of 125,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2023-24 marketing year.
CORN: May corn futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. Prices dipped below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages yesterday, marking those as initial resistance at $4.35. Additional resistance stands at $4.42 1/4, which capped gains earlier this week. Support comes in at $4.30 with backing from $4.24 3/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw selling pressure overnight. Bears defended the 40-day moving average at $11.95 on Thursday on a closing basis, though prices traded up to $12.17 1/2, marking those levels as resistance. Support stands at $11.84, the 10-day moving average at $11.79 3/4, then $11.75.
WHEAT: May SRW futures posted modest corrective gains overnight. Resistance stands at $5.44 1/2, $5.47 1/2, then this week’s high of $5.56. Support stands at $5.28 1/4. Bulls are seeking to post a higher low on the daily bar chart, which would mean keeping prices above Monday’s contract low of $5.23 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on a continuation of Thursday’s breakdown, though reports of higher cash trade could limit losses after the open. April futures closed below the trendline stemming from the December lows for the first time on Thursday, despite testing that mark several times since late February. Negotiated cash trade developed late in the day yesterday. Based on some of the unconfirmed reports of cash trade, the average price for the week could challenge or exceed the all-time high posted in June 2023. April futures removed much of the premium held to cash prices, leaving the contract sensitive to sharp gains in the cash market. Wholesale prices continued to firm as well, as Choice cutout rose 96 cents to $310.78 and Select was up 65 cents to $301.69.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, as strong buyers continue to limit the downside. Following sharp losses on Monday, buyers have quickly stepped in, underpinning futures and limiting losses. The quick reversal in the CME lean hog index from losses late last week supported futures as well, as the index is up another 17 cents to $82.19 today (as of Mar. 13). The index is up $17.14 from the seasonal low and $2.30 above year-ago. Wholesale pork continued to show strength as well, as cutout firmed $1.29 to $93.25, with gains in all cuts except butts. Movement slipped to 189.4 loads following impressive movement earlier this week. Slaughter counts have dropped sharply from both week-ago and year-ago, and are expected to fall 38,873 head (2%) from year-ago.