GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 9 to 12 cents lower.
Soybeans: 23 to 27 cents lower.
Wheat: 3 to 12 cents higher in HRW and SRW; spring wheat mixed.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures rose overnight on concern over global supply disruptions from the Russia/Ukraine war. Soybeans fell to the lowest level in over a week and corn also fell. Malaysian palm oil futures dropped as much as 5.7%, extending losses to a fourth session, while Nymex crude oil fell over $5.00. U.S. stock index futures point to a stronger open, while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points lower this morning.
Talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials will resume today via videoconference as Russia continues its assault on Ukrainian cities with artillery and missile fire. Discussions yesterday yielded no major outcomes. Russian forces widened their bombardment of Kyiv and other cities, and the U.S. warned China over its deepening alignment with an isolated Russia. António Guterres, the secretary general of
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) are expected to report soybean crush totaled 165.0 million bu. in February, based on a Reuters survey. That would be down from 182.2 million bu. from January but up from 155.2 million bu. last year. The February record crush was 166.3 million bu. in 2020. Traders expect soyoil stocks to decline to 1.985 billion pounds.
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 123 MMT. He left his other South American crop estimates unchanged. Cordonnier continues to peg the Brazilian corn crop at 112 MMT as he waits to see how weather the next three months develops. He continues to forecast Argentine production at 39 MMT for soybeans and 49 MMT for corn. He also left his Paraguay soybean crop estimate at 5 MMT.
USDA approved faster line speeds at Clemens Food Group in Hatfield, Pennsylvania; Quality Pork Processors in Austin, Minnesota; and Wholestone Farms Cooperative in Fremont, Nebraska, as part of a pilot program. Plants approved for the trial program can operate at faster speeds for up to a year and are supposed to collect data on how line speeds affect workers. Nine plants were eligible to apply for the trial program because they were previously able to accelerate processing under the Trump-era rule.
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has now confirmed a total of 34 cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), including additional cases in commercial poultry operations. That brings the case county in commercial flocks to 21. Cases have been confirmed in Cecil County, Maryland, in a flock of 664,061 commercial layer chickens; 36,000 turkeys in a flock in Charles Mix County, South Dakota; and a flock of 3 million commercial layer chickens in Jefferson County, Wisconsin.
South Korea tendered to buy up to 210,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., South America, South Africa or the Black Sea/eastern Europe. Japan is seeking to buy 104,483 MT of wheat in its weekly tender.
CORN: May corn fell as low as $7.36 1/2 overnight, the lowest intraday price since the middle of last week. Prices may extend yesterday’s weakness if crude oil’ slump prompts long liquidation in other commodities. Initial support is seen at last week’s low of $7.28 3/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans fell as low as $16.44 overnight, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $16.34 1/2 on March 4. Weakness in crude oil and related markets like soyoil may pressure soybeans amid growing beliefs the market has established a near-term top.
WHEAT: May SRW wheat traded within yesterday’s range overnight as traders continued to monitor the Russia/Ukraine war, with ongoing concern over disruptions to global wheat trade likely to limit selling interest.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firmer
HOGS: Steady-mixed
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend yesterday’s gains on signs the market established a near-term bottom, while weakness in corn should underpin feeders. Wholesale beef has showed signs of bottoming, as Choice cutout values rose 80 cents yesterday to $255.51, the highest daily average since March 2. Movement totaled a light 83 loads. Live steers averaged $138.30 last week, down $2.31 from the previous week and the second consecutive weekly decline. Wholesale beef trade continues to signal retailers are hesitant buyers on days when packers raise prices.
April live cattle rose $3.025 yesterday to $140.325, the highest closing price since March 1. April feeders jumped $4.425 to $162.40.
HOGS: Lean hogs may find support from firming cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up 7 cents today, to a six-month high, for the fourth consecutive daily gain. With yesterday’s mild price decline, April lean hog futures finished $1.37 above today’s cash index quote (as of March 11). While the seasonal tendency is for cash prices to soften during March, the modest gain in the face of a rising cash index should limit selling in the front-month contract. Pork cutout values rose 64 cents yesterday to an average of $103.19 on strong movement totaling nearly 348 loads.