GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 7 to 10 cents lower.
Soybeans: 15 to 20 cents lower.
Wheat: 10 to 25 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures fell to a one-week low overnight after comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin boosted hopes for a ceasefire in the war with Ukraine. Corn and soybean futures also traded lower overnight. Nymex crude oil futures are near unchanged this morning. U.S. stock index futures point to a slightly firmer open, while the U.S. dollar index is near unchanged this morning.
China extended a string of U.S. soybean purchases that began in late January. USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 264,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year. Since Jan. 28, USDA has reported a combined 6.84 MMT of soybean sales to China or “unknown destinations,” a more than 10-fold increase from the previous month. USDA also announced 128,900 MT of corn sales to unknown destinations for 2021-22.
Russian forces bearing down on Kyiv are regrouping northwest of the Ukrainian capital, satellite pictures showed, with Britain saying Moscow could now be planning an assault on the city within days. Russian troops took out two military airfields in Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk, while Moscow-backed separatists have captured Volnovakha, north of Mariupol, according to Russian defense ministry. Russia said it will send thousands of fighters from the Middle East to join its forces in Ukraine.
Ukraine is likely to reduce the area seeded to sunseeds, rapeseed and corn in 2022 and replace it with buckwheat, oats, millet, peas the country’s agriculture producers’ union said. “For the full nutrition of its population and the armed forces, more emphasis will be placed on buckwheat, peas, those types of crops that will make it possible to harvest so that Ukraine is fully provided with food,” the deputy head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council said. Farmers will start planting crops in the safe areas of the country as soon as possible.
Global prices of food and feed could rise by 8% to 20% as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned. FAO said it was unclear whether Ukraine would be able to harvest crops during a protracted conflict, and there also uncertainties surrounding Russian food exports. The FAO global food price index already surged to a record high in February.
China sold 59,452 MT of the 71,126 MT of state-owned soybean reserves put up for auction, according to Sinograin. The state stockpiler also sold 10,172 MT, or 71%, of the rapeseed oil reserves offered. It previously sold 126,891 MT of soyoil from reserves. Sinograin will auction 295,596 MT of imported soybeans from reserves next Monday.
CORN: May corn futures fell as low as $7.46 1/2 overnight and are down from $7.54 1/4 at the end of last week. Pressure in the wheat market will weigh on corn prices, though stronger export demand should provide underlying support.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans fell as low as $16.65 1/4 but are up from $16.60 1/2 at the end of last week. The soy complex may also take pressure if wheat futures continue to sell off, though declines may be limited by strong export demand.
WHEAT: May SRW wheat filled the March 3 gap and fell as low as $10.52 3/4 overnight. The contract is down sharply from $12.09 at the end of last week, giving back part of the previous week’s $3.49 1/4 surge. Volatile price action is likely to continue as traders monitor Russia’s war with Ukraine and disruption to the global grain trade, but technical action signals a major top is in place. SRW and HRW price limits are 85 cents today. Taiwan purchased 50,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-lower
HOGS: Steady-lower
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend yesterday’s losses as continuing erosion in the cash market exacerbates concerns over beef demand. USDA-reported live steers averaged $138.12 this week through yesterday morning, down $2.49 from last week and on track for a second consecutive weekly drop. Choice beef cutout values rose $1.24 yesterday to $253.94 but movement was light at 106 loads, indicating retailers are still reluctant buyers, especially on days when prices firm. April live cattle are trading at a discount of over $2 to current cash levels, but it will be difficult to generate sustained buying interest with cash prices slipping. Feeder futures may gain support from weakness in the corn market.
April live cattle fell $1.675 yesterday to $135.90, up from $135.775 at the end of last week. Key support is seen at $133.50, a six-month low posted March 4.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are on track for a third consecutive weekly decline on softer wholesale pork and signs of a seasonal market top, though late-week strength in the CME lean hog index may underpin prices. The index is up 65 cents to $99.91. Pork cutout values fell $3.54 yesterday to $104.20, led by a drop of nearly $15 in hams, which continue to fluctuate widely. April lean hogs fell $1.05 yesterday to $100.10, down from $100.45 at the end of last week.