GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each posted corrective gains overnight, with corn leading the way higher. The open has brought selling pressure most of this week, a change of that trend will be key. Outside markets are quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are both trading near unchanged. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indices are both expected to open on record highs this morning.
USDA reported daily sales of 152,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.
Maritime labor unions in Argentina announced on Thursday they would cease all activities in ports for 48 hours. The United Maritime Workers Union in a post on Facebook said that the Tugboat Owners Chamber (C.A.R.) has refused to negotiate an expired bargaining agreement, prompting the union to halt work.
Russia will boost financial support to farmers but is not expected to ban grains exports if a federal emergency is declared due to frosts last month that damaged crops, industry sources told Reuters. “We don’t expect strict restrictions on exports, but reduction in our supply to the world market is quite possible. We will be less flexible on prices, recognizing the limitations of our supply,” said Eduard Zernin, head of Rusgain, an exporter group which regularly meets with the government to discuss their views on the state of the industry.
Ukraine maintained its grain production forecast of 52.4 MMT despite poor weather in May, acting Ag Minister Taras Vysotskiy said. Frosts in the first half of May and an ensuing drought in most regions of Ukraine created unfavorable conditions for all crops and may affect yields. The prolonged absence of rain across most of Ukraine caused a deterioration of crop conditions, but there has not been irreversible damage if timely rains develop the remainder of the growing season.
Export sales for the week ended May 30:
Corn: Net sales of 1.181 MMT for 2023-24, up 46% from the previous week and 41% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily from Mexico and Japan. Traders expected 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT for 2023-24. Exports of 1.489 MMT were up 43% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average.
Soybeans: Net sales of 189,600 MT for 2023-24, down 43% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales from 175,000 to 650,000 MT for 2023-24. Exports of 387,900 MT were up 86% from last week’s marketing year low and 28% from the four-week average.
Wheat: Net sales reductions of 229,000 MT for 2023-24 and net sales of 616,900 MT for 2024-25. Traders expected (100,000) to 100,000 MT for 2023-24 and 200,000 to 550,000 MT for 2024-25. Unknown destinations led purchases for new crop, but China did purchase a cargo as well.
CORN: July corn futures saw strong gains overnight. Additional buying eyes resistance at the 10-day moving average at $4.48 1/2, then the psychological $4.50 mark. Meanwhile, bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.43 1/2 then $4.39 1/4 on a resurgence of selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures rebounded overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at yesterday’s high of $11.91 3/4, which is backed by psychological $12.00 resistance. Support stems from $11.77 1/4 and is reinforced by $11.66 3/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw modest corrective gains overnight. Bulls are seeking to maintain prices above initial resistance at $6.50 and are targeting the 20-day moving average at $6.64. The 40-day moving average at $6.44 1/2 limited selling efforts Wednesday and will act as initial support, with backing from $6.34.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone driven by technical buying, though the negative outlook traders retain for the cash market could limit gains after the open. Futures returned to support that has capped losses the last four sessions on Wednesday afternoon, which could spark buying efforts today. Cash cattle trade is off to a slow start this week as expected, with just 90 head trading hands at $190.00. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday sharply lower, which could limit packer willingness to pay up for cattle. Choice cutout fell $2.09 to $314.79 Wednesday, while Select sunk $3.57 to $300.90. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,500 MT for 2024, down 8% from the previous week and 11% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective buying, though sellers continue to drive prices lower on the daily chart despite futures being heavily oversold. The CME lean hog index is up another 13 cents to $92.06 as of June 4. The premium in both June and July lean hog futures is virtually gone, with those contracts closing at $92.10 and $92.20, respectively, on Wednesday. Wholesale pork continues to struggle pushing much above the $100.00 mark as prices fell 45 cents to $100.31 as all cuts except bellies fell on the day. USDA reported net pork sales of 29,900 MT for 2024, down 33% from the previous week but up 3% from the four-week average.