Ahead of the Open | June 28, 2024

Soybeans and wheat saw modest corrective gains overnight while corn languished near unchanged. Price action ahead of today’s reports are likely to be driven by positioning.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.

Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.

Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans and wheat saw modest corrective gains overnight while corn languished near unchanged. Price action ahead of today’s reports are likely to be driven by positioning. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading higher and on two-month highs and the U.S. dollar index is trading modestly lower.

USDA will release its Acreage and Grains Stocks Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT. The Acreage Report will feature planted and harvested acreage estimates for principal crops, with markets primarily focused on corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. Because of the timing of NASS’ survey work, the data won’t account for recent flooding in areas of the northwestern Corn Belt. While the acreage estimates will draw a lot of attention, quarterly stocks data has a history of producing major surprises, especially for corn, leading to big post-report price moves. Click here to view the pre-report estimates.

Argentine oilseed crushers workers union SOEA started striking Thursday in protest of President Javier Milei’s proposed economic and labor reform bill that was being voted on and eventually passed Argentina’s Congress. It is uncertain how long the strike will last. The CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grain exporters questioned the legality of what it called an “unplanned” strike.

With just two days left in the 2023-24 marketing year, Ukraine’s grain exports reached 50.6 MMT as of June 28, according to ag ministry data, up from around 49 MMT last year. That included 29.2 MMT of corn, 18.3 MMT of wheat and 2.5 MMT of barley.

France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 60% good or excellent as of June 24, down two percentage points from the previous week. That remains the lowest rating for the date since 2020.

CORN: December corn futures struggled to maintain bullish momentum overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $4.40 then the 10-day moving average at $4.47 1/2 on report driven strength. Bears are seeking to overcome support at $4.33, $4.30 then $4.25 on continued selling pressure.

SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest corrective gains overnight. Downtrend line resistance lies at $11.15, which is backed by the 10-day moving average, which has capped rallies since its failure in late May, at $11.21 3/4. Support lies at the recent for-the-move low close at $11.04 3/4 then $10.85.

WHEAT: December SRW futures saw continued corrective gains overnight. Prices are trading above the downtrend line stemming from the May high, which will now act as support at $6.01. Continued strength above that mark likely marks a near-term bullish reversal, while a break back below would indicate a failed breakout with further downside likely.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though technical resistance could limit gains. Prices have traded in an upward slowing channel since the April low and gains the past two sessions have struggled to break above the upper trendline of that channel. After weaker trade earlier this week, cash cattle prices are building bullish momentum though trading remains fairly light so far this week. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Thursday as Choice cutout firmed 48 cents to $323.33 and Select dipped 16 cents to $302.70.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower on continued technical selling and cash fundamental weakness. USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the June 1 hog herd greater than the pre-report expectations implied. A greater market hog inventory is likely to weigh on prices, though some of it is likely priced in. The CME lean hog index is down 17 cents to $89.75 as of June 26, reversing yesterday’s gain and resuming the recent downtrend. Pork cutout sunk 62 cents to $94.90, led by weakness in ribs. Movement continues to be fairly light at 239.58 loads, indicating weak retailer demand.