GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat traded around unchanged most of the overnight session though selling accelerated this morning, while soybeans traded higher most of the night before turning lower into the break. Outside markets are mixed as front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 300 points lower.
Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest reached 34% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was well ahead of 9% last year and the fastest pace for the date since AgRural began tracking progress in 2013.
Flooding resulted in some areas of the western and northern Corn Belt over the weekend due to excessive rains. An active jet stream with no potential for a blocking pattern is expected through the next 10 days and probably two weeks, according to World Weather Inc. That will bring more precip to saturated locations, but also allow some timely lighter rains to move into dry southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt, Delta and Southeast. The Southern Plains will be mostly dry during the next 10 days. Russia’s New Lands and Southern Region will be cooler during the next 10 days, with some needed showers likely.
Thursday’s debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the 2024 presidential election. The House is in this week while the Senate is out. Both chambers are out next week for the July 4 holiday and return the week of July 8. The economic focus will be Thursday’s second estimate of first quarter GDP and Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. It’s a big week for agricultural reports, with USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report on Thursday and the Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports on Friday.
China is further restricting fertilizer exports, as it seeks to contain domestic prices, cut farming costs and bolster grain security. Curbs imposed earlier this month apply to urea and phosphates, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Exports of urea and phosphates had already slowed this year, to a trickle in the case of the former, after limits put in place at the end of 2023. Now, urea shipments have been halted entirely, the people said. For phosphates, customs is stepping up inspections on outbound cargoes, which could reduce sales even more. China’s total fertilizer exports actually climbed to a six-month high of nearly 2.5 MMT in May, as sales of ammonium sulfate offset the drop in the other products.
USDA reported daily sales of 228,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2024-25 marketing year.
CORN: December corn futures continue to face selling pressure. Initial resistance stems from $4.55, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $4.61 1/2. Support stems from the Feb. 26 low of $4.46 with selling likely to accelerate before that mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures are flagging near recent lows. Bulls are seeking to close prices above initial resistance at $11.25 3/4 before tackling the 10-day moving average at $11.36 1/4. Support stems from Friday’s low of $11.13 1/4 then the psychological $11.00 mark.
WHEAT: September SRW futures continue to face selling pressure. Prices are well below the 10-day moving average at $6.09, which could spark some corrective buying. Additional resistance lies at $5.85 on the way. Support stems from the April 17 low at $5.68 1/4, which is backed by $5.53 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mildly weaker tone following Friday’s relatively negative Cattle on Feed Report. USDA estimated there were 11.583 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus) as of June 1, down 7,000 head (0.1%) from year-ago but 152,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. May placements topped year-ago by 4.3%, whereas traders expected a 1.5% decline. Marketings increased 0.2% from last year, slightly less than expected. Cash cattle trade is likely to dictate price action after mid-morning, when last week’s cash cattle average is released. Most of last week’s cash trade was pushed late into the week, after USDA’s report, though prices were well above week ago leading into Friday afternoon trade. Wholesale beef ended Friday lower, with Choice cutout falling 48 cents to $322.29 and Select sinking $1.29 to $303.11.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven lower by weakening cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is down another 23 cents to $90.32 as of June 21, marking declines in five out of the last six days totaling a net $1.26. Futures are not likely to stray much above the index in the July contract and the August contract implies weakness up until that point, which is unlikely to change unless a significant shift occurs in the fundamentals. Pork cutout was $1.18 higher Friday, driven higher by loins and butts, offsetting big losses in bellies and ribs.