GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 7 to 9 cents lower; HRS 8 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw selling pressure overnight, negating a portion of the gains seen Tuesday in corn and beans. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are extending higher and near 7 week highs and the U.S. dollar index is around 250 points higher and near recent highs.
Of the 10.22 MMT of soybeans China imported during May, 8.80 MMT originated from Brazil with 1.27 MMT coming from the United States. While Brazil remained China’s main soybean supplier, its shipments declined 19% from May 2023, while U.S. arrivals increased 156%. For the first five months of the year, soybean shipments to China from Brazil totaled 24.71 MMT, up 23% from the same period last year, while arrivals from the U.S. fell 34% to 10.85 MMT.
Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop by 500,000 MT to 82 MMT.
Dryness in northern and eastern Argentina, as well as delayed harvesting of the corn and soy crops, had disrupted wheat planting. But forecast rains will allow wheat seeding to accelerate, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, which raised its wheat seedings forecast by 100,000 hectares to 6.3 million hectares.
China may impose provisional anti-dumping measures on pork imports from the European Union as part of a year-long probe that began on June 17, its commerce ministry said. “If, after a preliminary investigation, it is determined that dumping has been established and has caused injury to domestic industry, provisional anti-dumping measures may be taken,” a commerce ministry spokesperson said, without giving specific details.
Due to Wednesday’s government holiday, export sales data for the week ended June 13 will be released Friday morning.
Warm and dry conditions led to steady declines in soil moisture from west-central Missouri to the easter Corn Belt Wednesday into today, says World Weather Inc. The eastern Midwest is forecast to see little rain through Monday while the western Corn Belt will see regular rounds of rain, says the forecaster.
CORN: July corn futures continue to face staunch selling pressure. Initial resistance stands at $4.49 1/4 and is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $4.52 1/4. Uptrend support stems from $4.44 1/2 and is backed by the June 5 close at $4.39 1/4.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures gave up a portion of Tuesday’s gains overnight. Resistance steams from $11.75 and is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $11.79, with firm resistance at $11.90. Support comes in at $11.66 3/4 then Monday’s close at $11.57 3/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures continue to face selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at $5.81 3/4 before tackling resistance at $5.93 1/2. Prices are oversold which could spark corrective buying. Support stems from the overnight low of $5.72 1/2, which is reinforced by support at $5.60.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on continued cash fundamental strength. Packers reportedly actively raised cash cattle bids in the northern market in an attempt to obtain supplies, as cattle numbers are tight. So far, feedlots have passed, suggesting there could be another significant increase in the average cash price this week. Cattle supplies are more plentiful in the Southern Plains, so prices won’t be as strong there. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Wednesday, as Choice cutout rose 18 cents to $320.70 and Select dropped 95 cents to $303.26. Retailer demand has stayed strong, with packers moving 190 loads on Tuesday and 125 loads yesterday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower on technical selling. August futures rebounded to test downward trendline resistance and reversed earlier gains on Tuesday, confirming resistance. The CME lean hog index is down another penny to $90.72 as of June 18, which will continue to weigh on nearby July futures. Pork cutout dipped 37 cents to $97.66 on Wednesday, led by a $5.88 drop in bellies. Belly prices fell nearly $19.00 in the past three days. Movement totaled 290.96 loads, which continues to be firm despite Fourth of July feature purchases likely being finished.