GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 12 to 15 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 13 to 16 cents lower; HRS 7 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans and wheat led overnight weakness, each marking fresh six-week lows. Corn saw selling pressure as well but held up better than the former two. Outside markets are quiet this morning, as front-month crude oil futures continue to consolidate near resistance and recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is pivoting around unchanged, also near recent highs.
Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest jumped to 21% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was well ahead of last year’s 5% clip at this time and the most advanced since AgRural started tracking harvest progress in 2013. Yields remained strong in Mato Grosso and Goiás, while they showed impacts of heat and moisture stress in other states.
The eastern Midwest, central and northern Delta and interior parts of the Southeast are forecast to be hot and dry this week. Wet weather and cooler temps are expected across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Nebraska and Kansas are forecast to receive some rains, while the Southern Plains is expected to be dry. Globally, western CIS crop areas will be plenty wet during the next 10 days to two weeks except in Russia’s Southern Region, eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan where conditions will be hot and mostly dry.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report its members crushed 178.4 million bu. of soybeans in May, which would be up 5.3% from April and 0.2% from last year’s record for the month. Soyoil stocks at the end of May are expected to total 1.775 billion lbs., which would be down 3.1% from April and 5.2% below year-ago.
China has opened an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and by-products from the European Union in response to tariffs on its electric vehicles. The products under scrutiny include fresh, cold and frozen pork, pork offal, pig fat without lean meat, and pig intestines, bladders and stomachs. The investigation will cover import activities from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 of the previous year, with an industrial damage evaluation period spanning from Jan. 1, 2020, to Dec. 31, 2023. The commerce ministry said that the investigation should be completed by June 17, 2025, but could be extended another six months if required. European pork producers should be able to keep exporting to China tariff-free while the investigation is underway, pending a decision and a tariff announcement by Beijing.
CORN: July corn futures saw selling pressure overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at $4.49, which is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $4.50 3/4, then $4.53. Further selling finds support at $4.43 3/4, which is firmly backed by the June 5 close at $4.39 1/4.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures broke down technically overnight. Initial resistance stands at $11.75 and is backed by the 10-day moving average at $11.84. Additional selling pressure finds support at $11.63 then $11.56 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures opened lower and saw continuous selling pressure overnight. Bulls are seeking to retake initial resistance at the psychological $6.00 mark, which is reinforced by resistance at $6.15. Support stands at $5.93 1/2 and is backed by $5.81 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on a continuation of Friday’s strength. August futures appear to be breaking out on the daily bar chart. Strengthening cash fundamentals fueled prices higher last week, as cash cattle posted gains for the second consecutive week and could challenge the record high. Wholesale beef strengthened as well, as Choice cutout firmed $1.58 Friday to $319.89 and Select rose $4.56 to $303.81, though movement slowed to 101 loads. Retailers should have the bulk of their features purchased for the Fourth of July, so traders will closely monitor beef movement for signs of a short-term top.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on corrective buying, though waning cash fundamentals could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down 14 cents to $91.44 as of June 13, keeping prices in a tight range in the low $90.00 area for the past two months. After falling below the $100.00 level for a couple days, the pork cutout value jumped $4.33 on Friday to $101.35. Strong gains in bellies, butts and loins fueled gains on Friday. Pork cutout has traded in a $3.00 band on either side of $100.00 for two-plus months.