GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat saw modest strength overnight while soybeans saw mild selling pressure. Wheat futures have closed lower for nine consecutive sessions, a break from that weakness could support corn and soy after the open. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to see strength and the U.S. dollar index continues to extend to the upside.
USDA reported daily sales of 104,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China curing the 2023-24 marketing year.
USDA rated 74% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from the previous week. The amount of corn rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 5%. The initial soybean crop rating was 72% “good” to “excellent” and 4% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop slipped 0.3 point to 385.2, though that was still 24.3 points above year above. Soybeans started the growing season with a 373.2 CCI rating, 22.8 points above year-ago at this time. USDA rated 72% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down two points for the week. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 3%. The spring wheat CCI rating of 375.4 declined 3.2 points from last week. Click here for details.
Russian grain exporters see potential to increase shipments of grains and pulses to India and China while continuing to focus on their traditional markets in the Middle East and North Africa, the ag ministry said. The comments came after meeting with exporters following Turkey’s decision to halt wheat imports from late June to at least mid-October, one of its top export markets. Meanwhile, production is still a concern as frosts affected 15% to 30% of Russia’s winter grain crops, depending on the region, according to the head of Russia’s grain union.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate 2 MMT to 114 MMT. He said, “For several weeks, I have been thinking that my corn estimate was too low, but I hesitated to increase it while much of central Brazil was experiencing dry weather. Now that 10% of the corn has been harvested and the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) has increased the corn yield estimate for Mato Grosso, I decided to increase the corn estimate.”
Parts of the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota received light rain overnight, with little other rain occurring throughout the Midwest on Monday. The forecast for the next two weeks sees more sunshine than rain with the northwestern Corn Belt seeing the greatest rain, says World Weather Inc.
CORN: July corn futures saw continued strength overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at Friday’s high of $4.54 1/4, which is backed by the 100-day moving average at $4.59 1/4. Meanwhile, support comes in at the psychological $4.50 mark and is backed by $4.44.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continue sideways in rangebound trade. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at $11.94 which is backed by the psychological $12.00 mark. Support stems from $11.79 1/4 and is backed by last week’s low of $11.74 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw modest corrective buying overnight. Additional buying would find resistance at $6.22 1/4 then $6.34. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $6.05 1/2, which is reinforced by $5.95 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Monday’s strength. Late strength last week marked a gain in the weekly cash cattle average, which inched up a penny to $188.92. While that may not seem like much, it is a sharp contrast to losses seen earlier in the week. Last week’s federally inspected slaughter totaled 614,000 head, the smallest since 2016 and came after a holiday-shortened tally of 540,000 head during the week of Memorial Day. Slaughter is expected to be light again this week as packers manage a tight supply of market-ready animals. Wholesale beef prices remain strong in the wake of light slaughter, as Choice cutout was up 67 cents on Monday to $317.42, though Select dipped a dime to $301.04.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower as technical selling continues to weigh heavily on the market. July futures continue to trend lower and are still oversold on the daily bar chart, despite profit-taking efforts late last week, which could limit losses after the open. The CME lean hog index is down 23 cents as of June 7, the third consecutive daily decline. Given slight discounts in nearby futures, traders continue to anticipate relative weakness in the cash market in the near term, which could fuel buying in futures if cash prices resume the seasonal uptrend. Pork cutout was 48 cents lower to $100.43 Monday, as all cuts except hams saw losses.