GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat saw modest corrective strength overnight, while soybeans continued to face selling pressure. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to face selling pressure from recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 80 points higher.
Remnants of Hurricane Beryl will reshape near-term rainfall biases across the Midwest, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster says, “The storm will first bring some welcome moisture to the eastern Midwest where rainfall has been a little lackluster at times in the recent weeks. The storm’s presence over the eastern U.S. while a massive heat ridge remains over the western U.S. will lead to a broad trough of low pressure being over the Plains and Midwest that promises to reduce rain in the western Midwest and Central to Northern Plains. These changes may last long enough to remove some of the surplus moisture from the northwestern Corn Belt while maintaining a good environment for summer crops in the remainder of the region.”
USDA rated 68% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop rose 3.0 points to 375.3, while the soybean crop improved 2.4 points to 365.4. Both crops remain rated well above last year at this time. USDA rated 75% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 4% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat improved 1.2 points to 383.5. The spring wheat crop was also rated well above last year on this date. Click here for details.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts at 14.77 billion bu. and 4.39 billion bu., respectively, noting generally benign weather conditions. Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 2 MMT to 116 MMT given higher-than-expected yields in top producer Mato Grosso. He lowered his Argentine corn crop forecast 1 MMT to 46 MMT as yields are declining as harvest progresses. Cordonnier also lowered his Paraguay corn crop estimate 500,000 MT to 4.5 MMT. He made no changes to his South American soybean crop forecasts.
French soft wheat production is expected to decline 15.4% to 29.7 MMT, the lowest level since 2020, according to the first estimate from the country’s ag ministry. That would be 14.2% below the five-year average. The wheat crop forecast was based on an expected yield of 6.99 tons per hectare (down from 7.38 tons per hectare last year) and harvested area of 4.24 million hectares, (down from 4.75 million hectares in 2023).
CORN: December corn futures saw modest corrective gains overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $4.12 before tackling stiff resistance at $4.24. Resurgent selling pressure finds support at yesterday’s low of $4.05 3/4 then the psychological $4.00 level.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. Initial resistance stands at the psychological $11.00 mark, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $11.12 3/4. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.91 3/4 then $10.85 on continued weakness.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw corrective buying overnight. Initial resistance stems from the $6.00 psychological level, which is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $6.04 1/2, then $6.13 1/2. Support lies at $5.90 then $5.82 3/4 on resurgent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a weaker tone in a continuation of Monday’s selling pressure, though continued cash market strength could limit losses after the open. Despite the weekly cash average surging to a fourth consecutive record high, futures sustained heavy selling pressure Monday as concerns over a seasonal lull in demand weighed heavily on deferred contracts. Traders are anticipating a sharp decline in the cash market in the coming weeks. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Monday as movement slowed to 89 loads. Choice cutout firmed 4 cents to $330.47 while Select sunk 34 cents to $304.72.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to wane. The CME lean hog index is down 44 cents to $88.76 as of July 5, marking a new low on the decline from the seasonal high and the lowest quote since April 9. Both July and August futures are trading at modest premiums to the index, indicating uncertainty over the near-term outlook of the index and some potential strength. Pork cutout firmed $1.08 to $95.99 on Monday, as all cuts except butts and picnics posted gains on the day.