GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Soybeans: 15 to 20 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 11 to 13 cents lower; HRW 14 to 16 cents lower; HRS 10 to 12 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw persistent, heavy selling pressure overnight, negating much of last week’s gain across the three. Continued selling pressure after the open would be a likely sign that gains were merely corrective buying. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 50 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 135,636 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 50,800 MT is for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year while the remaining 84,836 is for 2024-25.
Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest continued at a rapid pace, reaching 63% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was more than double last year’s 26% for the date and the fastest since AgRural began tracking data in 2013.
Beryl built into a hurricane before making landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast between Houston and Galveston shortly before dawn. World Weather Inc. says the storm should move steadily to the north and eventually to the northeast after landfall spreading torrential rain, flooding and windy conditions through eastern Texas to southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois. Damage to agricultural areas is expected to be limited.
After remnants from Beryl move up through the Mid-South and eastern Corn Belt early this week, a period of drier weather is expected across the central United States. Hot temps will move into the Plains and possibly the western Corn Belt by late this week and early next week.
Lawmakers return from last week’s recess with a focus on fiscal year 2025 appropriations. The White House is in defense mode with President Joe Biden defiant about remaining in the 2024 presidential race, despite a rising number of calls for him to withdraw. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver two days of testimony before Congressional panels, starting on Tuesday with the Senate Committee on Banking and then the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. U.S. consumer inflation data will be released on Thursday, with producer prices slated for Friday. USDA’s updated balance sheets on Friday will reflect adjustments to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks. There will be major changes on the new-crop balance sheets to reflect planted acreage figures. USDA’s first all-wheat crop estimate will include survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum.
CORN: December corn futures saw heavy selling pressure overnight. Initial resistance stems from $4.20, which is reinforced by $4.25. Support stems from last week’s low of $4.14 3/4 then the recent for-the-move low at $4.12.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures gave up over half of last week’s gain overnight. Initial resistance steams from the 10-day moving average at $11.19, which is backed by Friday’s close of $11.29 3/4. Continued selling finds support at $11.04 then the recent for-the-move low at $10.97.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw sharp losses overnight. Prices are still well within last week’s range. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $6.07 3/4, which is backed by Friday’s close at $6.13 1/2. Support stems from $5.98 then last Monday’s low at $5.91 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical selling is likely to weigh on futures. Wholesale beef prices firmed 59 cents to $330.43 for Choice and 68 cents to $305.06 for Select in Friday, though movement was relatively light at 89 loads. Cash cattle trade was relatively light last week through Thursday though cash prices are likely to challenge the prior week’s record. Traders will likely focus on movement of wholesale beef as the summer doldrums typically cut beef demand post-Fourth of July.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a modestly weaker tone as technical selling is likely to persist. August futures have consolidated for the better part of two weeks and both the July and August contracts are trading near par with the CME lean hog index, demonstrating uncertainty in the near-term outlook. The CME lean hog index is down 25 cents to $89.20 as of July 4, ending two days of mild gains. Pork cutout firmed $1.28 to $94.91 as all cuts except ribs posted gains on Friday.