GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to show modest relative strength while corn and wheat continue to consolidate near recent lows. Trade the rest of the week is likely to be relatively light volume as traders take extended time off around the Fourth of July. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are posting modest strength and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 225 points lower.
Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today. All markets and government offices are closed on Thursday, July 4, for the Independence Day holiday. Grain and livestock markets resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CT on Friday, July 5. We will only send out two reports Friday – “First Thing Today” around 8:00 a.m. CT and “After the Bell” briefly highlighting the day’s price action after the closes. Happy Fourth of July from your Pro Farmer staff.
Climate change is causing permanent shifts in weather patterns, which are negatively impacting crop yields, according to the Financial Times. This is evident in various regions, such as oranges in Brazil and coffee in Vietnam. These reductions in supply are driving up food prices. What was once seen as temporary price increases are now becoming a long-term source of inflation, creating concerns for central banks.
The Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC) launched the country’s first technical center for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that focuses on standard setting and product research. The center, based in the southwestern city of Chengdu, will take the lead in mapping out industry policy and setting standards for products and quality control, two SAF industry executives with direct knowledge of the launch told Reuters. China is expected to unveil this year its policy on the use of SAF for 2030 that could spur billions of dollars of investment. The country currently does not produce SAF commercially for domestic use.
Rain is expected across the Corn Belt through Monday with most areas receiving precip and a boost in soil moisture, maintaining high yield potential, says World Weather Inc. Drier weather will return in the second week of July though current soil moisture levels will likely be able to support corn through pollination, says the forecaster.
USDA reported daily sales of 110,100 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 55,100 MT is for 2023-24 delivery and the remaining 55,000 MT is slated for delivery during 2024-25.
CORN: December corn futures continue to consolidate near recent lows. Resistance stems from yesterday’s high of $4.26 1/2 then the 10-day moving average at $4.34, while continued selling pressure finds support at last Friday’s low of $4.12 then $4.05.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to post modest gains. Bulls are seeking to keep prices above the 10-day moving average at $11.18, which has capped most rally attempts since its failure in late May. Further buying finds resistance at $11.25. Support comes in at $11.11 then $11.04 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: December SRW futures struggled to maintain overnight gains into the break. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at Monday’s close at $6.12 1/2 with further buying finding resistance at $6.25. Support stems from the psychological $6.00 mark, $5.97, then $5.82 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher, building on Tuesday’s strength. Volume in August futures was lighter than average Tuesday and that is likely to continue the rest of the week as some traders opt to take a long weekend. Cash trade has yet to take place this week, offering little guidance for futures. Cash trade is likely to stay light around the holiday with packers relying on hefty purchases the last few weeks and contracted supplies to keep their holiday-limited production rolling. Wholesale beef prices continue to strengthen, as Choice cutout firmed $1.21 on Tuesday to $330.39 and Select rose 7 cents to $306.48.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though technical selling could limit gains after the open. August futures tested downtrend resistance stemming from the April highs on the close. A push above that mark could indicate a breakout from the downtrend, though cash prices trending lower seasonally will provide headwinds. The CME lean hog index is up 14 cents to $89.31, bucking the recent bearish trend. Wholesale pork fell $1.09 on Tuesday to $94.32 as all cuts except picnics and bellies posted losses on the day.