GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 20 to 23 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 6 to 8 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat saw followthrough selling overnight with soybeans leading the way lower. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged this morning while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 300 points higher at the highest mark in over two weeks.
Most areas of the Corn Belt are expected to receive rains this week, while there is no excessive heat in the forecast, as a ridge of high pressure will stay to the west. Northern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt will be wettest as rains move over the western heat dome. The Southern Plains will be hot, though some rains are likely. The Delta will be dry over the next 10 days, while the Southeast will see frequent rains.
The House is out until Sept. 9, leaving just three weeks to avert a shutdown. The Senate is working this week, but history signals it could be a short session ahead of them leaving for the summer recess. On Thursday, the voting process to officially name Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee is expected to begin. Voting will be conducted by electronic ballots sent to convention delegates, and party officials have said their goal is to nominate presidential and vice-presidential candidates by Aug. 7. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) score on the House Ag bill is expected to be released late this week. The economic focus will be Wednesday’s conclusion of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. While interest rates will remain unchanged, some believe the Fed will convey plans to start easing monetary policy in September. Jobs data for July will be released on Friday.
President Joe Biden is set to propose a significant overhaul of the Supreme Court today, including the implementation of term limits for justices. However, the feasibility of these reforms faces a substantial challenge in the form of the Republican-controlled House.
India will make a decision on sugar industry calls for a hike in the minimum selling price (MSP) in the coming days, a senior government official said, adding that ethanol policies would be set before the start of the next season. The sugar-processing industry has been demanding an increase in the minimum selling price, saying the government has raised the mandatory procurement price of sugarcane in recent years while the MSP has remained unchanged since 2019. India restricted the use of sugar in ethanol production during the 2023-24 marketing year that ends on Sept. 30 and also prohibited exports to keep a lid on domestic prices.
CORN: December corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Resistance stands at $4.10 and is quickly backed by the 10-day moving average at $4.12 1/2. Support lies at $4.04 then the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at $10.31 3/4 before tackling stiff resistance at $10.43. Support lies at the psychological $10.25 level then $10.19 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures scored a fresh contract low overnight. Initial resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark, which is reinforced by $5.55 1/2. Support lies at the overnight low of $5.41 1/2 with further selling finding support at $5.30.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a firmer tone, supported by cash fundamentals. Trade through the first four days of last week indicated a likely increase in the average cash cattle price. Even with last week’s rally, August futures continue to trade at a hefty discount to the cash market. Wholesale beef prices strengthened Friday, as Choice cutout rose $1.31 to $313.77 and Select firmed $2.35 to $297.46, though movement slowed to 101 loads, indicating grocers could may become more selective buyers after recent strong purchases.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone as nearby contracts continue to consolidate following the recent rally. The CME lean hog index is up another 46 cents to $91.85 as of July 25, extending the string of gains to 10 days. August futures closed $1.625 above today’s cash index quote on Friday. Futures consolidated much of last week amid the contra-seasonal rally in the index. Traders are likely to await additional cash market gains before building strength in nearby futures. Wholesale pork ended Friday 78 cents lower to $105.17, led by weakness in hams and butts.