GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 10 to 13 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat traded narrowly near unchanged most of the overnight session though saw heightened selling pressure into the break. Soybeans saw relative weakness and went into the break near session lows. Front-month crude oil futures are trading lower and giving up most of yesterday’s gain, while the U.S. dollar index is trading near unchanged.
The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, up from a flat reading in May and in line with forecasts. Costs of services led the increase, offset slightly by costs of goods. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2%, up from a 0.1% rise in May and above forecasts of 0.1%. Annual PCE inflation decreased to 2.5%, in line with expectations, though core PCE was steady at 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%.
Scouts on the annual Wheat Quality Council HRS tour found an average yield of 54.5 bu. per acre after sampling fields across North Dakota the past three days. That’s the highest yield since tour records began in 1992. The yield was well above last year’s tour average of 47.4 bu. per acre and the five-year average (excluding 2020) of 42 bu. per acre.
France’s ag ministry rated the country’s soft wheat crop as 50% good or excellent as of July 22, down two percentage points from the previous week and the lowest since 2016. Wheat harvest reached 41%, well behind average.
Thursday’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris by former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama marks a significant moment in the Democratic presidential campaign. Obama’s regular contact with Harris, offering advice on campaign logistics, underscores the strong backing she has from the party’s influential members. Meanwhile, prominent Democratic donors and leaders in Arizona are urging Harris to choose Sen. Mark Kelly as her running mate. Polls indicate Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are favorites among Democratic voters and donors. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear are also being considered, offering Harris potential running mates with experience winning in red states.
CORN: December corn futures continue to base below $4.20 resistance. Strength above that mark finds resistance at $4.23 3/4, while support lies at $4.15 1/4, the 10-day moving average, then $4.11 3/4. Bulls have struggled to maintain morning strength into the close, a key to watch today.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures are caught between 10-day moving average support at $10.66 3/4 and 20-day moving average resistance at $10.78. Further weakness finds support at $10.57 3/4 while further strength finds added resistance at $10.86 3/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures traded narrowly around unchanged overnight. Bulls have failed to close prices above stiff resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $5.69. Further buying seeks to overcome this week’s high of $5.79 1/2. Support comes in at the for-the-move low close of $5.55 1/2 then the contract low of $5.50 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on continued strength in the cash cattle market. After trading at steady prices earlier this week, cash cattle trade in the southern market picked up around $2.00 higher. Bids remained scarce in the northern market where supplies are tighter, though solidly firmer prices are now expected there. Futures have marched higher this week, leaving room for profit-taking, which could limit gains after the open. Choice cutout sunk 22 cents to $312.46 while Select firmed $1.15 to $295.11 on Thursday. Movement stayed strong at 131 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a firmer tone, continuing to build on strong cash fundamentals. After trading lower for most of yesterday’s session, August futures rebounded and closed steady on the day. The recent strength in the CME lean hog index, which is up another 62 cents to $91.39 as of July 24, has underpinned the rebound in futures. August futures are currently trading $2.385 above the index, which could limit gains after the open, though the index shows little sign of slowing down. Wholesale pork firmed another $1.19 to $105.95 yesterday, led by strength in butts.