GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRW 7 to 9 cents lower; HRS 5 to 7 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans traded on either side of unchanged overnight though saw an increase in buying pressure into the break. Wheat saw relative weakness and gave up most of yesterday’s gain. Front-month crude oil futures continue to undergo selling pressure and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 75 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Scouts on the second day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRS tour found strong yield potential in north-central and northwestern North Dakota. Samples collected averaged 53.7 bu. per acre, up from 45.7 bu. on similar routes last year and the five-year average (excluding 2020 because the tour was canceled due to Covid) of 40.0 bu. per acre. Scouts again noted the presence of scab, though they weren’t certain about the impact to yields. “I’ve been doing this for a long time, and I don’t ever remember the crops being this uniformly good all over the state,” Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, said.
In a court filing late on Wednesday, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said an employee of COFCO International Australia placed an order to sell Eastern Australia Wheat Futures contracts below market value just before the close of trading on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) 34 times in 2022 in an attempt to influence the settlement price of the contract. Another local COFCO unit, COFCO Resources, stood to benefit because it held a short position in the same futures contracts, the federal civil court filing said. This is the first time ASIC has brought action against units of COFCO Corp, which is owned by the Chinese government and is one of China’s largest food and grain traders. ASIC said it was seeking unspecified fines and declarations of wrongdoing.
Export sales for the week ended July 18:
Corn: Net sales of 331,400 MT for 2023-24, down 24% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan and Mexico. Traders expected sales from 200,000 to 700,000 MT for 2023-24. Sales of 745,200 for 2024-25 were led by Japan, Mexico and unknown destinations. Exports of 1.210 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 88,600 MT for 2023-24, down 61% from the previous week and 63% from the four-week average. Sales came below expectations ranging from 100,000 to 400,000 MT for 2023-24. Sales of 829,700 MT for 2024-25 were in the upper end of expectations, led by purchases from unknown destinations. Exports of 368,500 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 309,300 MT for 2024-25, down 47% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. Sales came in the lower end of expectations of 300,000 to 625,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 271,500 MT.
CORN: December corn futures continue to struggle breaking above stiff resistance at $4.20. Strength above that mark finds resistance at $4.26 1/2. Support comes in at $4.14 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $4.07 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw action on both sides of unchanged overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome 20-day moving average resistance, currently at $10.77 1/4. Additional resistance lies at $10.68 3/4 on the way. Continued selling seeks to close prices below the 10-day moving average at $10.62 3/4, with further support at $10.52.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue in tight back and forth trade. Bulls are seeking to close prices above stiff resistance at $5.71 1/2, which is backed by last week’s high of $5.81. Support lies at $5.61 3/4 then the contract low close of $5.55 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on continued technical strength, though ongoing weakness in wholesale beef could limit gains after the open. Choice cutout sunk 53 cents to $312.68 and Select dropped $2.70 to $293.96. While wholesale prices been weaker, movement remains quite firm, totaling 188 loads on Wednesday. Cash cattle trade remains slow, modestly weaker to start the week, though action has taken place in the relatively cheaper southern markets. USDA reported net beef sales of 13,400 MT for 2024, down 13% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. USDA will release their monthly Cold Storage Report this afternoon. The five-year average is a 5.4-million-lb. decline in beef stocks in June.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on continued technical and cash fundamental strength, though some profit-taking is possible after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 69 cents to $90.77 as of July 23 – the eighth straight daily gain and the largest increase since April 11. Wholesale pork climbed to a new high, rising $1.26 to $104.76, the highest quote since Aug. 24 of last year. USDA reported net pork sales of 30,200 MT for 2024, up 28% from the previous week but down 19% from the four-week average. USDA will release their Cold Storage Report after the close, the five-year average is an 18-million-lb. drop in pork stocks in June.