Ahead of the Open | July 24, 2024

Corn and wheat saw action on either side of unchanged overnight though corn, soybeans and wheat were each trading lower into the break.

Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer’s Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.

Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.

Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 4 to 6 cents lower.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat saw action on either side of unchanged overnight though corn, soybeans and wheat were each trading lower into the break. Front month crude oil futures are rebounding from recent weakness as the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points lower.

Scouts on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRS tour found record yield potential in southern and east-central North Dakota. Samples collected averaged 52.5 bu. per acre, up from 48.1 bu. on similar routes last year and the five-year average (excluding 2020 because the tour was canceled due to Covid) of 42.2 bu. per acre. While yield were strong, nearly all scouting groups noted some fields had been stricken by fusarium head blight, also known as scab.

Indonesia is planning for widespread use of the palm-oil based B40 biodiesel in 2025, replacing the current B35 blend, the energy ministry said. The ministry said it had used B40 biodiesel, mixed with 40% palm oil, on a train for the first time earlier this week.

House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) is still attempting to move forward with passing a farm bill this year, despite significant challenges. Thompson on Tuesday expressed openness to “entertain” informal pre-conference negotiations with Senate Ag Committee leaders on the farm bill. This indicates a desire to make progress, even if it’s not through the traditional legislative process. Thompson has been critical of Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) refusal to release a full farm bill text. He stated, “I cannot reconcile nor negotiate a bipartisan 900-page bill with a partisan 90-page summary.” This highlights the ongoing tension between the House and Senate committees. Despite Thompson’s willingness to engage in discussions, there appears to be little movement in negotiations with Stabenow.

A favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected across most of the Midwest maintaining very good summer crop development, says World Weather inc. There is potential for a few pockets of moisture stress in the far western production areas as the ground begins to firm up.

CORN: December corn futures saw limited volatility overnight. Resistance stands at $4.20 and is quickly backed by yesterday’s high of $4.22 1/2. Support lies at $4.13 1/4, the 10-day moving average, with little backing until $4.06.

SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest profit-taking overnight. The 20-day moving average marks initial resistance at $10.79 1/4 with additional strength seeking to overcome yesterday’s high of$10.86 3/4. The 10-day moving average at $10.64 limited selling overnight, while additional weakness finds support at $10.52.

WHEAT: December SRW futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $5.71 3/4 before tackling last week’s high of $5.81. Support comes in at $5.63 1/2 before the contract low close at $5.55 1/2.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Higher.

HOGS: Higher.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Tuesday’s strength. August futures are narrowing the spread with the cash market, which has regularly been over $10.00, as traders have anticipated a big drop in the cash market. Cash cattle prices have remained relatively strong, seeing limited downside from the all-time record a few weeks ago. Packer purchases have slowed after peaking in early-mid July as margins have quickly turned negative amid the downturn in wholesale beef. Choice cutout continued its downtrend, falling 23 cents to $313.21 and Select sunk $1.67 to $296.66 Tuesday.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher, building on recent technical strength. Hogs are showing contra-seasonal strength, mostly led by pork cutout. The CME lean hog index is up another 28 cents to $90.80 as of July 22, the seventh consecutive daily gain. August futures are now $2.85 above the index, which could limit buying interest after the open. Pork cutout fell $1.02 to $103.50 on Tuesday, though still remains near this year’s highs. Losses in loins and butts led cutout lower on Tuesday.