GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw followthrough buying overnight while wheat posted modest losses. Each saw an increase in buying pressure into the break. Front-month crude oil futures are trading lower and near recent lows this morning while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 150 points higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 200,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield forecast by 1.5 bu. to 181.5 bu. per acre as weather has been favorable for pollination and there aren’t any threatening conditions in the near-term forecast. That increased his corn production estimate to 14.97 billion bushels. Cordonnier left his soybean yield and production forecasts at 52 bu. per acre and 4.39 billion bu., respectively.
USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop was unchanged at 373.5, while the soybean crop increased 2.0 points to 366.9. USDA rated 77% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat slipped 0.1 point to 383.9. Click here for details.
The Wheat Quality Council’s annual HRS tour through North Dakota, along with far western Minnesota and far northern South Dakota kicks off this morning. We’ll highlight scout reports through the week. Final yield results will be released Thursday afternoon, along with the North Dakota production guesstimate from Tour scouts.
CORN: December corn futures continued higher overnight. Bulls are looking to overtake 20-day moving average resistance at $4.20 1/2, which is backed by the July 5 close at $4.24. The 10-day moving average marks support at $4.13, a break below that would signal a failed breakout, targeting support at $4.04.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw followthrough buying overnight. Next resistance is the psychological $10.75 mark then the 20-day moving average at $10.80, with little additional meaningful resistance until $11.00. Key support lies from $10.66 to $10.62, a break below that eyes support at $10.40.
WHEAT: December SRW futures gave up yesterday’s gain overnight. The 10-day moving average at $5.73 remains formidable resistance with further buying seeking to overcome last week’s high of $5.81. Support lies at $5.65 then last week’s contract low close of $5.55 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as August futures continue to trade in a tight range. While futures rose on Monday, they closed well off session highs and failed to garner any bullish momentum above last week’s highs. Weakening cash fundamentals are likely to weigh on prices as last week’s cash average dropped 57 cents from the prior week to $193.67, the lowest level since mid-June. Wholesale beef continues lower as well, as Choice cutout fell 39 cents to $313.44 and Select sunk 47 cents to $298.33.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on continued cash market strength. The CME lean hog index is up another 9 cents to $89.80 as of July 19, the sixth straight daily gain — the longest string of gains since mid-April. Improved retailer demand for pork has supported the rebound in cash hog prices as pork cutout rose another $2.01 to $104.17, the highest quote since August of last year. Strength in hams and bellies led pork higher Monday.