GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 6 to 8 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led the way higher overnight with corn following to the upside, while wheat saw relative weakness. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to extend to the upside and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 50 points lower. Interest rate futures have been under heavy selling pressure the past few days, increasing interest rates and negating the June rally.
USDA reported daily sales of 100,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2023-24 marketing year.
USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 67% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 2.1 points to 372.3 while the soybean crop held at 363.0. CCI ratings were 32.7 points higher than last year for corn and 34.5 points above year-ago for soybeans. USDA rated 72% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 4% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat improved 8.6 points to 382.2. That was 48.8 points higher than last year on this date. Click here for details.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier is using USDA’s corn planted acreage figure, but he cut harvested acreage 910,000 acres to 82.538 million (90.2% of planted area) and maintained his yield estimate at 179 bu. per acre. That lowered his corn production forecast to 14.77 billion bushels. For soybeans, Cordonnier is using USDA’s planted acreage figure, but he cut harvested acreage 750,000 acres to 84.511 million acres (99.0% of planted area) and kept his yield estimate at 52 bu. per acre. That reduced his soybean production forecast to 4.39 billion bushels.
Shell will pause construction work at one of Europe’s largest biofuels plants due to weak market conditions, the latest low-carbon project to suffer a setback. Shell started development of the 820,000-ton-per-year plant in the Netherlands in September 2021, which was originally planned to start production in 2025. The project is now expected to go online toward the end of the decade. Rival BP last week said it is pausing two biofuels projects in Germany and the U.S.
Heavy rain fell on portions of the southwestern Corn Belt Monday with lighter rain falling on the remainder of the western Corn Belt, says World Weather Inc. Temperatures have been below average in much of the Midwest. The Corn Belt should see a healthy mix of rain and sunshine over the coming week.
CORN: December corn futures followed soybeans higher overnight. Initial resistance at $4.25 limited gains overnight while additional resistance lies at $4.30. Support comes in at $4.20 3/4 then Friday’s low of $4.12 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures extended higher overnight. Prices overcame resistance at $11.19 1/2, the 10-day moving average, which will act as initial support. Further selling would find support at $11.11 1/2. Resistance stands at $11.25 with further buying eyeing the 20-day moving average at $11.34 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures struggled to build on Monday’s gain overnight. The 10-day moving average marks initial resistance at $6.10 1/2, with additional strength finding resistance at $6.25. Support comes in at $6.01 1/2 then $5.88 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash market fundamentals remain robust, though continued technical selling could limit gains after the open. While prices continue to trend higher on the daily bar chart, upward trendline resistance has limited buying interest the last few sessions. Last week’s cash cattle average firmed 97 cents to $195.81, the third consecutive record. Steep discounts in August futures imply traders believe a seasonal price downturn will occur in the latter half of the summer in cash cattle and wholesale beef. Choice cutout firmed $2.86 to $329.18 and Select rose $1.91 to $306.41, both marking fresh for-the-move highs.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower on continued technical and cash fundamental weakness. August futures tested downward trendline resistance Monday and rejected lower, confirming the downtrend that has persisted since April. The CME lean hog index is down another 30 cents to $89.17 as of June 28, extending the recent pullback. Pork cutout negated most of Friday’s gain as cutout dropped $2.48 to $95.41, with each cut posting losses yesterday. Seasonal weakness is expected to persist in the hog market as slaughter and pork production builds in the second half of the year.