GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 9 to 11 cents higher; HRW 6 to 8 cents higher; HRS 9 to 11 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led the way higher overnight as corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near recent lows and modestly lower on the session while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 150 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 105,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Former President Donald Trump used his nomination speech to take aim at President Joe Biden’s electric vehicle (EV) policies, vowing to action against them on his first day in office. Trump’s remarks on EVs came just moments before he criticized what he said was trillions of dollars of wasteful spending “having to do with the green new scam.” He said he would instead direct the money to projects like roads, bridges and dams, though he didn’t provide a specific plan. Trump claims EVs will help China and Mexico while hurting American auto workers. Trump reiterated an openness for Chinese automakers to build cars in the U.S. as a way to create jobs and boost the economy.
China is facing an oversupply of soybeans as record purchases boost stockpiles at a time when soymeal demand remains subdued, Reuters reports. Importers have ramped up soybean deliveries, fearing a return to a trade war with the U.S., despite poor crush margins and weak demand from the livestock sector. At the same time, Chinese consumer demand for pork has waned. The soybean surplus threatens to curb China’s appetite for imports in the September to December period, the peak U.S. shipping period.
France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 52% good or excellent as of July 15, down five points from the previous week and the lowest since 2016 when France had the smallest crop since the 1980s. Harvest reached 14%, sharply behind the five-year average of 43% for the date.
CORN: December corn futures rebounded overnight. Initial resistance stems from $4.11 with further strength seeking to overcome Monday’s high of $4.16. Support lies just under the market at $4.04 1/4, which is backed by the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures are trading near the upper end of this week’s range. $10.50 has acted as stiff resistance since its failure Monday. Further strength eyes the 10-day moving average at $10.60 1/2. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.40 else a trip to yesterday’s low of $10.31 3/4 seems likely.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw strength overnight. Gains stopped shy of downtrend line resistance stemming from the July 8 high, currently at $5.69. Further buying eyes the 10-day moving average at $5.74 1/4. Support lies at $5.64 1/2 then the contract low at $5.50 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as prices have entered the demand zone that capped most losses in the past couple of weeks. A continuation of selling pressure from yesterday’s weakness could limit gains after the open. Bulls struggled to build on Wednesday’s strength as cash cattle prices weakened in the northern market following steady trade earlier this week in the southern market. Wholesale beef ended Thursday mixed as Choice cutout continues to weaken, falling $2.01 to $316.15, though Select firmed $1.02 to $299.46. USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon. Expectations call for higher cattle inventory, up 1.1% from year ago, a 2.8% drop in placements and a 8.3% decline in marketings from June 2023.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a firmer tone on cash fundamental strength. August futures gapped lower yesterday morning though rallied through much of the session, supported by a 47-cent increase in the CME lean hog index to $89.27, as of July 17. August futures hold a $2.105 premium to today’s cash quote. Traders appear to be wrestling with premiums in nearby futures as the cash market has been remarkably weak throughout this summer and traders are skeptical the recent cash strength will last. Wholesale pork ended Thursday 93 cents higher to $100.25m driven by strength in bellies and butts.