GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS 6 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans faced modest selling pressure overnight while wheat saw mild gains. Front-month crude oil futures are currently trading modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher. The S&P 500 is rebounding from yesterday’s rout alongside gold, which is trading within 1% of yesterday’s all-time high.
USDA reported daily export sales of 510,000 MT of soybeans and 150,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
There is bipartisan and bicameral support for a disaster aid package, but action is unlikely until after the August recess, according to Politico. FEMA predicts the Biden administration will nearly deplete its Disaster Relief Fund, which currently has about $9 billion, resulting in a $6 billion shortfall before the new fiscal year starts in October. President Joe Biden requested $4 billion in emergency cash. However, immediate action is hindered by ongoing regular funding bills and other political issues. It could be handled either ahead of the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline or as part of a stopgap funding measure. Of note: The House Ag Committee will hold a hearing July 23 on “Financial Conditions on Farm Country.” This comes amid declining commodity prices and reports of some bankers calling in loans.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) anticipates the new farm bill will be completed in 2025. Speaking at a CNN/Politico event during the Republican National Convention, Thune, who aims to become the GOP Senate leader, expressed doubts about finishing the bill this year. He emphasized its importance to his state’s economy but acknowledged significant differences that will likely delay its completion until next year. Thune hopes the GOP will be in the majority when the bill is finalized.
Export sales for the week ended July 11:
- Corn: Net sales of 437,800 MT for 2023-24, down 19% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, Mexico and Colombia. Traders expected sales from 500,000 to 800,000 MT for 2023-24. Exports of 630,900 MT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 360,100 MT for 2023-24, up 73% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and Egypt. Traders expected sales from 150,000 to 600,000 MT for 2023-24. Exports of 200,800 MT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 578,500 MT for 2024-25, up noticeably from the previous week and 1% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea, Mexico and China. Sales came in the upper end of expectations of 225,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 630,900 MT were up noticeably from a week ago and a marketing-year high.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest selling pressure overnight. 10-day moving average resistance has limited gains the past two weeks, which currently stands at $4.13 1/4. Further strength finds resistance at $4.19 1/2. Support lies at $4.07 1/4 then the recent for-the-move low at $4.03
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to base near recent lows. Resistance lies at $10.50, which capped gains in the past two sessions, with further strength seeking to overcome the 10-day moving average at $10.62 1/2. Support lies at the overnight for-the-move low of $10.36 3/4 then the psychological $10.25 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to see corrective buying. Bulls are eyeing initial resistance at $5.70 3/4 before tackling the 10-day moving average at $5.76 1/4. Support lies at $5.55 1/2 then the contract low of $5.50 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to build on Wednesday’s strong close with followthrough buying today. Reports of light cash trade around $188.00 in the southern market, steady from a week ago, supported futures yesterday as trade took place both earlier than anticipated and at stronger prices. Wholesale beef prices continue to face seasonal weakness, as Choice cutout fell $1.10 to $318.16 and Select sunk $3.15 to $298.44, though movement was strong at 163 loads. Select fell below the $300.00 mark for the first time since June 12. USDA reported net beef sales of 15,400 MT for 2024, up 85% from the previous week and 11% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of this week’s upside reversal. Despite facing seasonal weakness, the CME lean hog index is up another 18 cents to $88.80 as of July 16. That marks the first three-day string of gains since late-May/early June. Traders anticipate additional strength in the index in the near term, indicated by a $2.85 premium in August futures. Wholesale pork prices fell $1.55 to $99.32 on Wednesday, led by weakness in ribs, hams and butts. USDA reported net pork sales of 23,700 MT for 2024, down 11% from the previous week and 35% from the four-week average.