GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw corrective buying overnight though saw an increase in selling pressure into the break. Front-month crude oil futures continue to undergo heavy selling pressure and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points higher this morning.
USDA rated 68% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 1.9 points to 373.4 while the soybean crop slipped 0.5 point to 364.9. USDA rated 77% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 3% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat improved 0.6 point to 384.1. Click here for details.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his corn yield estimate 1 bu. to 180 bu. per acre given beneficial weather as corn started pollination. That increased his corn production forecast to 14.85 billion bushels. Cordonnier left his soybean yield and production forecasts at 52 bu. per acre and 4.39 billion bu., respectively.
Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed production could fall to 77 MMT from around 82 MMT in 2023, the county’s major agricultural producers group Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) said. Despite the production decline, a UAC official said the 2024-25 exportable surplus would be around 60 MMT, almost the same amount the country exported in 2023-24.
CORN: December corn futures saw corrective buying overnight. Initial resistance stands at $4.12 and is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $4.14. Bulls are seeking to hold Friday’s low of $4.03, further support stands at the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Initial resistance stems from the psychological $10.50 mark and is backed by $10.59 1/2. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the overnight low of $10.37 1/2, further selling eyes $10.25 support.
WHEAT: December SRW futures posted modest corrective gains overnight. Initial resistance stems from $5.75 with additional backing from the 10-day moving average at $5.82 3/4. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the overnight low of $5.54 1/2 then the psychological $5.50 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on technical buying. August live cattle futures have traded in a tight, sideways pattern for the past week and are nearing the lower end of the recent range. Given steep discounts to cash cattle prices, the downside is likely to be limited in the near future. Cash cattle prices averaged $194.24 last week, down $2.85 from the previous week’s all-time high, though not as weak as early trade indicated. Cash prices are likely to decline again this week as packers purchased a relatively large amount of cattle since the beginning of June. Trade is likely to be pushed late into the week given this week’s Cattle on Feed Report. Wholesale beef ended Monday mixed as Choice cutout fell 57 cents to $321.49 and Select firmed $2.51 to $304.82.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to erode seasonally. August futures continue to trade in a downtrend and challenged downtrend line resistance Monday, confirming resistance around $90.00. That is likely to continue to weigh on prices. The CME lean hog index firmed 4 cents to $88.42 as of July 12, in line with August futures. Traders appear uncertain about the near-term outlook in the cash hog market, which could limit volatility as futures trade close to the index. Pork cutout dipped 55 cents to $98.29 on Monday, driven lower by a $6.60 drop in hams.