GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat saw relative weakness overnight, erasing Tuesday’s corrective gains. Soybeans saw followthrough selling much of the overnight session though saw an increase in buying interest this morning and went into the break nearer session highs. Outside markets are quiet this morning as both the U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/25 marketing year. This marks initial purchases by China for new-crop, far later than usual but a good sign export demand for new crop could improve.
India’s monsoon continues to perform relatively well and most locations of the country have ample moisture to support generally good crop establishment and growth, according to World Weather Inc. Rainfall as a percent of normal ranged from 101% to 249% from June 1 to July 9. World Weather notes, “Soil moisture is rated adequate to excessive in a large section of India. However, many areas in western Rajasthan and western Gujarat still have a shortage of moisture. Portions of Tamil Nadu also have moisture shortages in the topsoil due to a lack of rain this month. Long-term production potentials are generally favorable across the country outside areas impacted by severe flooding.”
India plans to sell wheat from its state reserves to bulk consumers such as flour millers and biscuit makers starting in August, according to a government order seen by Reuters. The government will allow state-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) to start offering wheat from its inventories from next month at 23,250 rupees ($279) a ton, the order said, nearly 12% lower than prevailing open market prices. FCI has yet to decide the quantity of wheat that it plans to sell on the open market. Last year, FCI began selling reserve wheat into the domestic market in June and sold a record of more than 10 MMT in the fiscal year to March 2024.
The New York Times highlighted a new study by the American Statistical Association (ASA) warning the reliability of U.S. economic data is at risk due to shrinking budgets, declining survey response rates and potential political interference. Currently, government statistics remain dependable, but the study, authored by statisticians from various institutions including George Mason University and the Urban Institute, likens the statistical system to infrastructure that is often neglected until a crisis occurs. Despite these challenges, there is no current evidence of declining quality in U.S. economic data, according to statistical agencies and the ASA report. The report urges Congress to increase funding for statistical agencies, enhance data sharing and ensure protections against political interference.
CORN: December corn futures continue to base near Monday’s lows. Support stems from Monday’s low of $4.05 3/4 then the psychological $4.00 mark. Resistance stems from the June 28 low of $4.12 then the 10-day moving average at $4.21.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures posted corrective gains overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at $10.85 before tackling the July 1 low of $10.97. Support stems from the overnight low of $10.72, which has little backing until support at $10.56 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw resurgent selling pressure overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.94 1/2, which is backed by the 10-day moving average at $6.01 3/4. Support comes in just under the market at $5.90 with reinforcement from $5.82 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a modestly firmer tone on technical buying. Uptrend support stemming from the April lows limited selling pressure yesterday and helped August futures close well off session lows. That support is likely to persist today, especially as futures continue to trade at a substantial discount to the cash market. Wholesale beef prices fell on Tuesday, giving credence to traders’ belief that demand will slow following the Fourth of July. Choice cutout sunk $4.81 to $325.66 while Select dipped 41 cents to $304.31.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to face seasonal weakness. After trading at a modest premium to the index previously, August futures fell below the CME lean hog index, which is down 33 cents to $88.43 as of July 8. Some uncertainty still lies ahead in the near-term outlook, particularly for pork as grocers could opt to feature pork in the latter half of the summer. Pork cutout was down $2.24 to $93.75 with all cuts faces losses on the day, though movement was firm at 311.47 loads.