GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 11 to 13 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans favored the downside in overnight trade while wheat saw action on either side of unchanged. Selling pressure increased in each into the break. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher, rebounding from Monday’s weakness. The U.S. dollar index is trading around unchanged after yesterday’s selloff.
USDA reported daily sales of 110,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2024-25 marketing year.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian soybean and corn crop estimates at 171 MMT and 125 MMT, respectively. He has a neutral to higher bias for the bean crop and is neutral toward corn. Cordonnier left his Argentine crop estimates at 53 MMT for soybeans and 50 MMT for corn, with a neutral to lower bias toward both crops given building moisture stress.
State-level winter wheat crop condition ratings signaled general deterioration in the HRW crop during December, led by top producer Kansas and Nebraska. The “good” to “excellent” ratings for HRW wheat fell eight points in Kansas (to 47%), three points in Oklahoma (45%), 21 points in Nebraska (27%) and two points in South Dakota (22%) during December. The “good” to “excellent” ratings for HRW wheat improved two points in Colorado (70%) and three points in Montana (42%) over the past month. Texas did not update winter wheat conditions. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 9.0 points from the end of November to 330.3.
Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) restart today after breaking down in early November. With the current contract extension expiring on Jan.15, both sides face significant pressure to avoid a strike that could cost the U.S. economy an estimated $3.78 billion to $4.5 billion per week. A group of USMX representatives met with ILA leaders on Sunday to draw up language on automation ahead of this week’s formal negotiations, CNBC reported. The resulting proposal would give the union the right to create human jobs to complement technology implemented at ILA-operated ports. Both sides are under intense pressure to find a compromise and prevent a potentially crippling disruption to U.S. supply chains.
CORN: March corn futures saw profit-taking overnight. Initial support at $4.52 3/4, the 10-day moving average, capped overnight losses, while additional support stems from Friday’s low of $4.49 1/4. Strength finds resistance at $4.57 3/4 then the recent for-the-move high of $4.60 1/4.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures turned lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $9.84 then the psychological $9.75 mark on continued selling. Resistance stands at $9.93 1/2 then the 40-day moving average at $9.98 1/4 on resurgent strength.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw modest selling pressure overnight. Resistance persists at the 10-day moving average at $5.41 3/4. Strength above that mark eyes $5.50 resistance. Meanwhile, support stands at $5.33 then the contract low of $5.29 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher as cash fundamentals remain quite supportive, but overbought conditions could limit gains after the open. Live cattle futures jumped on Monday following reports that last week’s cash cattle average surged $4.12 to $198.93, a record high. Over the past seven weeks, cash cattle prices have climbed more than $14.00, pushing packer margins deep in the red. Wholesale beef prices climbed Monday as well, with Choice firming $1.86 to $327.10 while Select jumped $6.61 to $303.33.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to work lower, though oversold conditions could limit losses after the open. Losses in the CME lean hog index have accelerated with the index falling another $1.11 to $82.01 as of Jan. 3, the biggest daily drop since August. February futures continue to trade well below the index, showing traders’ anticipation of extended cash market weakness. Pork cutout fell another $1.71 to $87.83 Monday as all cuts except bellies posted losses on the day, though movement remained firm at 413.25 loads.