GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 15 to 18 cents higher.
Wheat: 7 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each made up a portion of Friday’s steep losses overnight, led by strength in the soybean complex. Corn and soybean futures are both trading near last week’s for-the-move highs. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and continue to make new highs, while the dollar index is over 1000 points lower. Reports that Trump is exploring tariffs that cover only critical imports from every country rather than all imports led to dollar weakness overnight, according to Bloomberg.
Argentina’s main crop areas, along with far southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay will be dry this week with seasonal temperatures. Argentina is expected to remain dry next week as temps turn hotter, increasing crop stress, while some relief rains should move into southern Brazil. Central Brazil will continue to see active rainfall.
India’s wheat prices jumped to a record high on Monday due to dwindling supplies amid robust demand from flour mills that are struggling to secure wheat to operate at full capacity, industry officials told Reuters. In December, New Delhi lowered the limit on wheat stocks that traders and millers can hold to help boost availability and moderate prices. But the curbs failed to bring down prices, which were trading around 33,000 rupees ($384.66) per metric ton in New Delhi, up from 24,500 rupees in April and far above the government fixed minimum support price of 22,750 rupees for last season’s crop. The state-run Food Corporation of India is selling 100,000 MT of wheat to bulk consumers every week, but this is not sufficient to meet demand.
The House and Senate are both in session, though no hearings are scheduled as organizational efforts for the 119th Congress continue. On Thursday, Washington will host a service for former President Jimmy Carter, which is a National Day of Mourning and a federal government closure. The economic focus this week will be Wednesday’s minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Friday’s employment data for December. USDA will release a barrage of reports on Friday, including the Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings.
CORN: March corn futures regained most of Friday’s loss overnight. Initial resistance stems from $4.58 1/2, which is backed by last week’s for-the-move high of $4.59 3/4. Resurgent selling finds support at $4.55 then the 10-day moving average at $4.52 1/2.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures led strength overnight. Bulls are eyeing initial resistance at $10.12 with additional strength eyeing resistance at $10.20 3/4. Initial support at $10.05 1/4 is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $9.99 1/4, then $9.91 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures bounced overnight. Continued strength looks to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $5.41 3/4, which is reinforced by resistance at the psychological $5.50 mark. Resurgent selling pressure finds tentative support at $5.33, while bears are ultimately looking to break below the contract low of $5.27 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of selling pressure from Friday’s declines from a for-the-move highs. Nearby live cattle futures continue to be supported by stronger-than-expected cash cattle trade. Last week’s cash cattle average rose for the seventh consecutive week and is expected to top the July 2024 record when released later this morning. Wholesale pork rose Friday as well, with Choice cutout firming $1.76 to $325.24 while Select climbed $2.49 to $296.72.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone as choppy trade persists near recent lows. The CME lean hog index marked a fresh seasonal low, falling 87 cents to $83.12 as of Jan. 2, the fifth straight daily decline. February lean hog futures finished Friday $2.345 below today’s cash quote, showing traders pessimism in the cash market over the coming month. Pork cutout bounced 22 cents to $89.54 Friday, led by strength in bellies. Weakness in cutout has pulled the cash market lower over the course of the past week.