GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 8 to 11 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw profit-taking overnight while wheat traded on either side of unchanged. Soybeans continue to show relative weakness and are near key technical support. Outside markets are quiet this morning as both front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are modestly weaker.
Ag consultancy SovEcon lowered its 2024-25 Russian wheat export forecast by 900,000 MT to 42.8 MMT. The revision reflects the persistently slow shipment pace and challenging export conditions. USDA cut its Russian wheat export forecast by 1 MMT earlier this month to 46 MMT.
A cargo of Louis Dreyfus Company soymeal destined for export from the southern Brazilian port of Paranagua was returned for reprocessing at one of the company’s local plants, the firm told Reuters. A person with knowledge of the matter said the soymeal was sent by trucks to the port and subsequently rejected last week for containing impurities. The source said the soymeal cargo’s origin was a Louis Dreyfus factory in Ponta Grossa in the state of Parana.
Export sales for the week ended Jan. 23:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.359 MMT for 2024-25, down 18% from the previous week but up 39% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales came within expectations ranging from 850,000 MT to 1.8 MMT. Exports of 1.320 MMT, with the bulk of the total going to Japan and Mexico.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 438,000 MT for 2024-25, down 71% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales below expectations ranging from 450,000 to 1.7 MMT. Exports totaled 736,200 MT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 MT for 2024-25, up noticeably from last week and up 96% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for the Philippines, unknown destinations and South Korea. Sales came the upper end of expectations ranging from 150,000 to 500,000 MT. Exports totaled 558,900 MT.
CORN: March corn futures saw modest profit-taking overnight. Initial support comes in at last week’s high of $4.90 while additional support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $4.85 3/4. Resistance stands at yesterday’s for-the-move high of $4.97 1/2 then the psychological $5.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures traded lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above 10-day moving average support at $10.47 1/2, which is reinforced by support at $10.40 1/2. Resistance comes in at $10.53 then yesterday’s high of $10.44 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls hope to close prices above stiff resistance at last week’s high of $5.66 3/4. Support comes in at $5.58 3/4 then the psychological $5.50 mark on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of Wednesday’s weakness, though discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cash cattle trade remains light so far this week as packers have been slow to establish bids. If Wednesday’s weakness in futures extends, it could bleed over to the cash market, though feedlots are current and will be in no hurry to move cattle at lower prices. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday lower, as Choice cutout fell $1.91 to $330.54, while Select sunk $1.29 to $320.67. USDA reported net beef sales of 20,200 MT for 2025.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, driven by technical buying though a continuation of selling pressure from yesterday afternoon cannot be ruled out. The CME lean hog index is up another 48 cents to $82.59 as of Jan. 28, marking the biggest daily gain during the past three weeks of strength. Bulls are likely encouraged to see larger daily gains in the index. Wholesale pork ended Wednesday higher, driven by persistent strength in bellies, though movement fell to 286.9 loads. USDA reported net pork sales of 33,600 MT for 2025.