GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade, though buying interest perked up into the break. Outside markets are supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to work higher and the U.S. dollar index is around 400 points lower, reversing from yesterday’s more than two-year high.
China’s trade with the U.S. fell to 11% of its total goods trade in 2024, its lowest since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. Beijing has diversified exports, favoring Southeast Asia, and imports, relying more on Brazil and Australia for key commodities. With President-elect Donald Trump signaling potential hefty tariffs, Beijing braces for renewed trade tensions, though some analysts suggest future deals could see China boost U.S. imports to ease any conflict.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index declined 0.5% in December, as decreases in the prices of sugar, dairy, vegoils and cereal grains more than offset an increase for meat. The December index stood 6.7% above year-ago. For 2024 as a whole, the index declined 2.1% from the previous year. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 7.0% for meat, 17.0% for dairy and 33.5% for vegoils, while values fell 9.4% for cereal grains and 10.6% for sugar.
Export sales for the week ended Dec. 26:
- Corn: Net sales of 777,000 MT for 2024-25, down 55% from the previous week and 44% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Japan. Sales came below expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Exports of 1.003 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 484,700 MT for 2024-25 — a marketing year low, down 51% from the previous week and 67% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales were below expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Exports totaled 1.704 MMT, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
- Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 MT for 2024-25 — a marketing year low, down 77% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Sales came below expectations ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 MT. Exports totaled 381,900 MT.
CORN: March corn futures saw profit-taking overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $4.52 1/4 then $4.50 on continued selling, while resistance stands at yesterday’s for-the-move high of $4.59 1/2.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures reversed lower overnight. Initial support lies at $9.99 1/4, the 40-day moving average, while additional selling finds support at $9.93 3/4. Bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at $10.10 1/2 before tackling yesterday’s high of $10.15 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continued lower overnight. Bears are likely looking to challenge the contract low of $5.29 1/4, while additional support lies at $5.40 1/4 on the way, which capped the downside overnight. Resistance stands at $5.44 1/2 then yesterday’s high of $5.52 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher, supported by robust strength in the cash cattle market.Cash cattle trade turned active Thursday with prices generally $2 to $4 higher than week-ago, which suggests the cash market could challenge the all-time high average price of $197.09 posted in early July. February futures are at a steep discount to the cash market, which is likely to limit any downside on profit-taking. Wholesale beef prices were modestly weaker Thursday as Choice cutout fell 74 cents to $323.48 while Select dropped 29 cents to $294.23. USDA reported net beef sales of 1,400 MT, up 29% from the previous week but down 71% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical buying. The CME lean hog index is down another 28 cents to $83.99 as of Dec. 31, the fourth consecutive daily decline. While the index continues to show weakness, February futures have seen little follow-through selling as stiff support remains under the market and steep discounts to the cash market limit losses. Pork cutout continues to work lower as well, falling 98 cents to $89.32 Thursday, led by weakness in bellies. USDA reported net pork sales of 7,500 MT for 2024, up 6% from the previous week but down 60% from the four-week average.