GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 6 to 8 cents higher; HRW 8 to 10 cents higher; HRS 7 to 9 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn continues to lead strength as corn, soybeans and wheat each traded solidly higher in overnight trade. Corn futures are nearing last week’s highs. Outside markets are modestly lower to start the day while the U.S. dollar index is over 400 points higher and near the upper end of the recent range, threatening to break the downtrend from the early January peak.
A mild winter with record warm temperatures in many agricultural regions of Russia is helping winter crops to survive, state weather agency chief Roman Vilfand said. But the weather agency estimates a record 38% of winter crops are in poor condition due to drought. He said warmer weather would bring spring seeding campaign forward by about five to seven days across Russia this year. Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut earlier said 82% of winter crops were in good and satisfactory condition, far above the weather agency’s number due to differences in methodology and timing of data collection.
The Fed is widely expected to pause its recent interest rate cuts at the conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this afternoon. There are no updated economic projections from Fed officials with this meeting, so wording and tone of the FOMC statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely dissected for clues to the path of monetary policy moving forward.
The American Farm Bureau Federation is prioritizing expanding the migrant farm workforce and adjusting wage requirements as it pushes Congress for labor policy changes. At its annual conference in Texas, the organization voted to advocate for year-round employment for seasonal workers and to challenge workplace regulations. USDA Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins has expressed support for Trump’s immigration policies but signaled openness to modifying the H-2A visa program. With over 300,000 visas issued in 2023, nearly 40% of U.S. farmworkers still lack legal status.
CORN: March corn futures continue to lead strength. Bulls are eyeing resistance at last week’s for-the-move high of $4.94 1/2. Support comes in at $4.84 1/4 then $4.82 3/4 on resurgent profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures continue to trend higher. Continued strength finds resistance at $10.56, while bulls are ultimately targeting the 200-day moving average at $10.66 1/4. Support stands at $10.45 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $10.38 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures built on Tuesday’s strength overnight. Bulls overcame initial resistance at $5.49 1/2, marking that as initial support, while additional selling would target support at $5.37 1/2. Resistance stands at $5.58 3/4, though bulls are ultimately targeting last week’s high of $5.66 3/4
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as the market continues to surge, though severely overbought conditions in futures could limit gains after the open. Front-month futures have scored a contract high for five consecutive sessions, surging $11.50 during that span. Still, futures continue to trade under the cash market, which is likely to limit the downside on any corrective selling. Wholesale beef prices were higher Tuesday and are in the upper end of the recent range. Choice cutout rose $2.37 to $332.45 while Select climbed $1.41 to $321.96.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by continued strength in the cash market. The surge in cattle futures has led to increased buying interest in hogs despite relatively sluggish cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up another 17 cents to $82.11 as of Jan. 27, though February futures have surged to a $1.79 premium to the index despite small jumps in the cash hog market. Pork cutout ended Tuesday modestly weaker, falling 30 cents to $92.86 as losses in loins, butts and ribs offset strong gains in bellies.