GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength overnight as corn, soybeans and wheat each rebounded from Monday’s losses. Corn and beans are each nearing last week’s range, how prices react there will be key. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are rebounding from last week’s weakness while the U.S. dollar index is up over 600 points.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Hot, dry conditions have taken a toll on Argentine crops, with soybean crop ratings falling for six straight weeks and likely to decline further. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean crop estimate 2 MMT to 49 MMT. He cut the corn crop forecast 1 MMT to 47 MMT. He maintains a neutral to lower bias toward both crops. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop estimate at 170 MMT with a neutral bias as he awaits additional harvest results. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop forecast at 125 MMT, though he now has a neutral to lower bias as roughly 30% to 40% of the safrinha crop will likely be planted after the ideal window due to soybean harvest delays.
Asked about a report that incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was confirmed by the Senate on Monday, favored starting with a global tariff rate of 2.5% that would gradually increase, President Donald Trump said he didn’t think Bessent supported that and wouldn’t favor it himself. He said he wanted a rate “much bigger” than 2.5%. “I have it in my mind what it’s going to be but I won’t be setting it yet, but it’ll be enough to protect our country,” Trump said. “As tariffs on other countries go up, taxes on American workers and businesses will come down and massive numbers of jobs and factories will come home,” Trump said. “Remember, again, the word ‘tariff.’ We’re going to protect our people and our businesses, and we’re going to protect our country, with tariffs,” he added. Trump also said he’d impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, computer chips, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in the “very near future” to bring production back to the United States.
The White House budget office issued a directive to pause all federal grants and loans, according to a leaked memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). This unprecedented action could place trillions of dollars on hold and has sown confusion among federal agencies, nonprofits and state governments. The memo, signed by acting OMB director Matthew J. Vaeth, instructs agencies to halt financial disbursements and reassess their alignment with President Trump’s executive orders targeting diversity, clean energy initiatives and other programs.
CORN: March corn futures saw resurgent strength overnight. Resistance stands at $4.85, which capped overnight gains, then $4.90. Support comes in at $4.81, the 10-day moving average, then $4.75 on a reversal.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures reversed a portion of Monday’s losses overnight. Resistance comes in at $10.55 3/4 then the 200-day moving average at $10.66 1/2. Support stands at $10.45, the 10-day moving average which capped the downside yesterday, then $10.33 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures posted modest gains overnight. Bulls are looking to tackle 10-day moving average resistance at $5.43 3/4 before challenging the $5.50 mark. Support stands at yesterday’s low of $5.32 then $5.26 on resurgent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by continued strength in the cash market, though severely overbought technical conditions could limit gains after the open. Last week, cash cattle averaged a record $209.19, up $5.52 from the previous week’s record. Futures continue to trade well under the cash market, indicating traders believe a top is near, but steep discounts will also likely limit any selling pressure ahead of a confirmed cash market reversal. Wholesale beef prices were higher Monday, with Choice firming $2.16 to $330.08 and Select climbing $4.26 to $320.55.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by technical selling. April futures have entered the upper end of the recent range, which is likely to draw speculative selling pressure. While the index continues to rise from its seasonal low earlier this month, gains have been small while nearby futures have extended well above the index. The CME lean hog index is up two cents to $81.94 as of Jan. 24. Pork cutout, on the other hand, rose to its highest level so far this year on Monday. Cutout rose $1.47 to $93.16, led higher by gains in butts and ribs.