GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade as a risk-off tone plagued the marketplace. Corn and soybeans are both near key support, marking today an important session. Outside markets are mixed this morning, as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower and the U.S. dollar index is around 400 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 139,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.
AgRural lowered its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 500,000 MT to 171 MMT due to cuts in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. The firm increased its soybean production forecast for Mato Grosso, despite the threat of crop quality concerns if rains persist into February. As of last Thursday, AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest at 3.9%, behind 10.8% on this date last year and the slowest since 2020-21. Safrinha corn planting stood at 2.2%, behind 11.4% at this time last year.
All of Argentina is advertised to get much-needed rain over the next two weeks, though amounts in the south and east-central this week will be a little too light and sporadic for some areas. Central Brazil will remain wet over the next two weeks, limiting soybean harvest progress and safrinha corn planting, both of which are already delayed.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced sweeping retaliatory measures against Colombia, citing its refusal to allow U.S. deportation flights to land. The measures included: A 25% emergency tariff on Colombian imports, with plans to raise it to 50% within a week, travel bans and visa cancellations targeting Colombian officials and their supporters and enhanced inspections of Colombian nationals and cargo entering the United States. Within hours, the dispute was resolved, was Colombia agreed to accept deported migrants “without limitation or delay.” As of today, the tariffs remain shelved, while other restrictions stay in place pending fulfillment of Colombia’s commitments. Trump’s move to quickly threaten tariffs on billions of dollars in trade with Colombia served as a reminder of his eagerness to use economic tools to achieve geopolitical goals. But his rapid U-turn also illustrated why Trump faces questions about his willingness to make good on his threats. Meanwhile, China pledged to accept the return of undocumented Chinese citizens in the U.S., after Trump threatened to hit Colombia with tariffs for refusing to take back deported migrants.
CORN: March corn futures traded lower overnight. Bulls are trying to hold prices above $4.79 3/4, the 10-day moving average, else a trip to $4.74 support seems likely. Resistance stands at $4.84 1/4 then $4.90 on a reversal.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures favored the downside overnight. Bulls are looking to keep prices above the 10-day moving average at $10.44, while continued selling finds stiff support at $10.31. Resistance stands at $10.53 then $10.66 3/4 on a reversal higher.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. Prices are poised to break the modest uptrend that has capped the downside since the Jan. 10 contract low. Support comes in at $5.33 1/4 then $5.26 on continued selling pressure, while resistance stands at $5.43 then the psychological $5.50 mark on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone driven by a bullish Cattle on Feed Report, though some profit-taking is possible given strong gains ahead of the report. Full report details can be found here, but the bullish driver of the report was reduced placements due to the continued closed border with Mexico, as we mentioned Friday morning. Last week’s cash cattle average is expected to post another record when released later this morning. Feedlots remain current with strong negotiating power, so persistent cash market strength again this week cannot be ruled out.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength, though waning strength in the cash market could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another penny to $81.29 as of Jan. 23, extending the rebound off the seasonal low for the tenth consecutive day. February futures are about a dollar above the index, indicating traders are expecting modest cash market strength over the next three weeks. Pork cutout slipped 8 cents on Friday to $91.69, led by losses in loins, butts, ribs and picnics.