GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 9 to 11 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRW 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each opened lower overnight on reports that Argentina is cutting export taxes. Meanwhile, each saw little followthrough selling and saw an increase in buying pressure into the break. Outside markets are supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are seeing modest corrective strength while the dollar index is down another 350 points.
Corn, soybeans and wheat fell under pressure after reports that Argentina cut export taxes from Jan. 27 through June. Argentina’s taxes on soybean exports will decline to 26% from 33%, while rates on soy products will fall to 24.5% from 31%. For both wheat and corn, export taxes will be reduced to 9.5% from 12%. An Argentine ag source told us, “Even with the export tax cut, our soybeans are still too expensive to actively compete in the export market.”
President Donald Trump expressed a preference for avoiding tariffs on China, describing them as a “tremendous power” but reiterating his willingness to use them if necessary. In an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Trump noted that while tariffs provide leverage over Beijing, he’d rather not implement them. Trump’s remarks reflect a balancing act in his foreign policy approach. However, he remains critical of certain Chinese exports and continues to link Beijing’s influence to resolving broader global issues, such as the war in Ukraine. His stance underscores ongoing diplomatic and economic complexities in U.S./China relations. Trump also addressed other international challenges, including Russia and North Korea, emphasizing negotiations and sanctions as key tools in his foreign policy arsenal.
Export sales for the week ended Jan. 16:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.661 MMT for 2024-25, up 62% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea and Taiwan. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 700,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. Exports of 1.517 MMT were a marketing year high, with the bulk of the total going to Japan and Mexico.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 1.492 MMT for 2024-25, up noticeably from a week ago and from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China, who purchased over half the total. Sales were in the upper end of expectations ranging from 600,000 to 1.8 MMT. Exports totaled 1.035 MMT, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
- Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 MT for 2024-25, down 68% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Japan. Sales came below expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports totaled 201,300 MT.
CORN: March corn futures opened lower overnight on Argentine export news. Continued selling finds support tat $4.83 1/2 then the 10-day moving average at $4.79 3/4. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.90 then yesterday’s high of $4.94 1/2 on continued strength.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures gapped lower overnight. Continued weakness finds support at the psychological $10.50 mark, which is backed by the 10-day moving average at $10.43 1/2. Resistance comes in at $10.64 then yesterday’s high of $10.76 1/4 on strength.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continue to trend lower. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.47 1/4, the 10-day moving average, which is quickly backed by $5.45 support. Resistance stands at $5.50 1/2 then $5.58 3/4 on resurgent strength.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mixed tone as choppy trade is likely ahead of this afternoon’s reports. Placements will be the focus in USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) Report, with that figure expected to rise from year ago despite a ban on Mexican feeder cattle. The Cold Storage Report will also detail frozen meat stocks at the end of December. Expectations for the COF Report and average movement in meat stocks during December can be found here. Cash cattle trade so far this week is poised to post another record, though trade has been light so far this week. Wholesale beef weakened, with Choice cutout falling $1.06 to $330.96 and Select sinking 78 cents to $317.21 Thursday. USDA reported net beef sales of 15,100 MT for 2025.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, support by strength in cash fundamentals. February lean hog futures continue to consolidate near recent lows though persistent strength in the CME lean hog index, which is up another 21 cents to $81.93 as of Jan. 22, is likely giving traders confidence a seasonal low is in place. Wholesale pork prices climbed $1.60 to $91.77 Thursday, led by strength in loins, butts and ribs. Strength in the wholesale market would likely further affirm suspicions of a seasonal low being in place. USDA reported net pork sales of 37,700 MT for 2025.