GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 19 to 22 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 9 to 11 cents higher; HRS 6 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight with corn and wheat posting strong gains as well. Each saw a modest increase in selling pressure overnight. Old-crop futures led corn and soybeans higher with new-crop seeing just modest strength. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to pull back from recent highs and the U.S. dollar index is over 800 points lower.
President Donald Trump postponed imposing new tariffs and directed federal agencies to review trade relationships with China, Canada, and Mexico. A memo said trade officials will assess trade deficits, unfair practices and currency issues, easing concerns about abrupt trade actions. While Trump campaigned on steep tariffs, including a 60% duty on Chinese goods, the administration now favors a methodical approach. The administration will evaluate compliance with the 2020 China Phase 1 trade deal and review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ahead of its 2026 assessment. On USMCA, Trump is set to direct his cabinet secretaries to assess its impact on American workers and businesses and make recommendations on whether the U.S. should continue participating in it, according to the document. Trump may enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1, he said Monday. Trump mentioned the possibility of introducing tariffs on China if it rejected an American-led deal to buy TikTok’s assets in the country but didn’t give a specific date for potential action.
Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 1.7% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, the slowest pace since 2020-21. Harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top producing state, was the slowest in AgRural’s historical series that began in 2010-11. Safrinha corn planting, which follows soybean harvest, reached only 0.3%, the slowest start since 2021.
Crop damage from recent hot, dry conditions in Argentina caused South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier to cut his Argentine production forecasts by 1 MMT each for soybeans and corn. He now forecasts production at 51 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn with a lower bias toward both crops. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian production forecasts at 170 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn.
CORN: March corn futures marked a fresh high overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.93 on continued strength. Meanwhile, support stands at $4.85 then $4.78 3/4 on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures led overnight strength. Bulls are looking to challenge last week’s high of $10.64 on continued strength, which is reinforced by the psychological $10.75 mark. Support stands at $10.33 1/2 then $10.19 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: March SRW futures posted strong gains overnight. Bulls are looking to close prices above resistance at $5.52 1/4 on continued strength, though the 40-day moving average at $5.49 1/4 limited overnight strength. Support comes in at $5.46 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $5.42 on resurgent weakness.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher, supported by the cash market. Last week, cash cattle averaged a record $203.67, up $1.09 from the previous week. Cash cattle prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks, with record highs for three straight weeks. February live cattle futures finished Friday $6.92 below the average cash price as traders anticipate a near-term top in the cash market, though the cash market strength is likely to lift futures early this week. Wholesale beef prices were modestly lower yesterday as Choice cutout fell 53 cents to $333.16 while Select sunk 39 cents to $319.44.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, in a continuation of last week’s weakness. February lean hog futures reversed lower as gains in the CME lean hog index have done little to encourage more than corrective strength. Traders will keep a close eye on the index for confirmation of a seasonal low this week. Pork cutout has rebounded $4.48 from the January low, helping stabilize the index. Pork cutout rose $1.71 to $92.31 Monday, led by strength in loins and bellies.