GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cent lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: The grain and soy markets remained closed for New Year’s Day overnight and will resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CT. Pre-trading orders show modestly weaker openings when trading resumes. Outside markets were mixed in overnight trading as front-month crude oil futures are over a dollar higher and at the highest mark in over two-and-a-half months, while the dollar index is around 300 points higher and making new highs.
The FBI is investigating the Bourbon Street attack in New Orleans early Wednesday as a terrorism case after discovering an Islamic State flag on the suspect’s vehicle and a bomb nearby. The suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. citizen from Texas, drove a truck into a crowd of New Year’s revelers. The FBI said it believes Jabbar didn’t act alone and is actively pursuing four others who were observed on video planting IEDs elsewhere in the city. Meanwhile, federal authorities are investigating whether there may be a link with a deadly blast outside Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas later Wednesday.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect USDA to report November soybean crush totaled 208.1 million bu., which would be down 7.7 million bu. (3.6%) from the all-time record in October but up 8 million bu. (4.0%) from last year. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to total 463.7 million bu., up 3.2 million bu. (0.7%) from October and 6.5 million bu. (1.4%) above November 2023.
A renewed threat of a dockworker strike looms over America’s East and Gulf Coast ports. Leaders from a U.S. dockworkers’ union and the group that represents their employers are set to resume contract talks on Jan. 7. Maersk, the world’s second-largest container carrier, has advised customers to remove cargo from these ports before Jan. 15, warning of a possible coast-wide strike starting Jan. 16 if no agreement is reached. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 47,000 cargo handlers, has been in stalled contract negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance for over two months. Although a temporary deal in October averted a crisis with a 62% wage increase over six years, the key issue of automation remains unresolved. As the three-month delay ends, fears of port disruptions resurface, potentially impacting supply chains and consumer confidence.
Due to Wednesday’s New Year’s holiday, export sales data for the week ended Dec. 26 will be published Friday morning.
CORN: March corn futures continue to lead strength. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.63 1/4 on continued strength, though some corrective selling is possible. Support stems from $4.54, which is reinforced by the psychological $4.50 mark.
SOYBEANS: Short covering led March soybeans to a six-week high close Tuesday. Bulls are seeking to build on strength, eyeing resistance at $10.19 then $10.25. Initial support stems from $10.03 1/4 and is backed by the 40-day moving average at $9.98 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures finished Tuesday in the upper end of the recent range. Bulls are eyeing initial resistance at $5.52 before tackling resistance at $5.58. Support stands at $5.48 3/4, the 20-day moving average, then $5.40 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Tuesday’s strength. Nearby February live cattle continue to trade well below the cash market, which remains supportive for futures as cash trade continues to prove strong. Packers aren’t expected to buy a lot of cattle this week, but cash sources expect prices to be no worse than steady with week-ago as feedlots have leverage. Wholesale beef prices slipped Tuesday, with Choice falling $1.15 to $324.22 while Select dipped 24 cents to $294.52.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, as futures are supported by steep discounts to the cash market. February futures underwent sharp selling pressure to end the year as funds covered a portion of their long position. A weaker CME lean hog index, which is down another 8 cents to $84.27 as of Dec. 30, the third straight daily drop, has also weighed on futures. Pork cutout plunged $4.02 to $90.30 Tuesday as all cuts posted losses except for ribs. Movement was strong at 408.44 loads, indicating packers cut prices in an effort to sell more pork.