GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 13 to 15 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 7 to 9 cents lower; HRW 8 to 10 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside overnight, with soybeans and wheat leading the way lower. Selling pressure eased into the break as prices were supported by better-than-expected export sales in corn and wheat. Front-month crude oil futures continue to consolidate near recent highs while the U.S. dollar index is around 150 points higher and rebounding from recent lows.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 135,000 MT of corn for delivery to Taiwan — each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn production forecast to 48 MMT from a previous range of 50 MMT to 51 MMT due to drought impacts. The exchange also said soybean production would be below its forecast range of 53 MMT to 53.5 MMT, without providing a new estimate, noting hot and dry conditions ruled out “the high productivity scenarios that were considered until recently.”
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said preliminary calculations show farmers under USDA’s rule have the potential to get carbon intensity (CI) scores per bushel significantly lower, including down about 70% for corn grown in a part of Illinois and about 90% for sorghum in an area of Kansas. The new guidance allows farmers to use climate-smart practices individually or in combination, unlike prior rules around the now expired “40B” tax credit for production of sustainable aviation fuel, which involved bundling specific practices. Such bundling proved impractical in certain regions. The new guidelines also add sorghum to the list of crops, rather than only corn and soybeans as part of a test program last year.
Export sales for the week ended Jan. 9:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.024 MMT for 2024-25, up noticeably from last week’s disappointing figure and steady with the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, South Korea and Mexico. Sales came above expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Exports of 1.484 MMT were a marketing year high, with the bulk of the total going to Mexico and Japan.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 569,100 MT for 2024-25, up noticeably from the previous week but down 27% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and Bangladesh. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from 300,000 to 800,000 MT. Exports totaled 1.476 MMT, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
- Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 MT for 2024-25, up noticeably from the previous week and 55% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea and Taiwan. Sales came above expectations ranging from 150,000 to 400,000 MT. Exports totaled 196,500 MT.
CORN: March corn futures traded within Wednesday’s range overnight. Continued weakness finds support at $4.73 1/2, while additional selling targets 10-day moving average support at $4.67 1/2. Bulls are looking to overcome Tuesday’s for-the-move high at $4.79 3/4 on resurgent strength.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures saw heavy selling pressure overnight. The 100-day moving average limited losses at $10.25 1/2, while additional selling finds support at $10.15 3/4. Bulls re looking to reclaim resistance at $10.33 1/2 then $10.42 3/4 on resurgent strength.
WHEAT: March SRW futures reversed lower overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.30 3/4 on continued selling, which is reinforced by the contract low of $5.26. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $5.41 1/4 then the psychological $5.50 mark, which limited gains earlier this week.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals remain supportive, but continued consolidation could limit gains after the open. Cash cattle have traded at mostly steady prices so far this week, though movement has been light thus far. While the recent rally in cash cattle could be stalling, futures remain at a hefty discount to the cash market and feedlots are not likely to be willing sellers at prices less than recent levels. Wholesale beef was mixed Wednesday, with Choice climbing $1.16 to $334.14 while Select fell 67 cents to $318.04. USDA reported net beef sales of 9,700 MT for 2025.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s weakness, though persistent strength in the cash market could limit losses after the open. February lean hogs finished Wednesday at a $2.025 premium to the CME lean hog index, which is up another 11 cents to $81.10 as of Jan. 14. While the index has climbed for three consecutive days, the daily gains have been waning. Pork cutout climbed 62 cents to $90.83 Wednesday, led by gains in ribs and hams. USDA reported net pork sales of 30,300 MT for 2025 were primarily for Mexico.