GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each continue to consolidate near recent highs. Bullish momentum picked up for each going into the break. This morning’s CPI report brought volatility into the marketplace, sending equity markets higher and bond yields lower. Lower bond yields led to heavy selling in the U.S. dollar index, which is over 500 points lower. Front-month crude oil futures rebounded from Tuesday’s selling pressure and are modestly higher.
Bureau of Labor Statistics released December consumer price inflation (CPI) this morning, which showed inflation rising for the third consecutive month. Monthly inflation came in as expected at 0.4%, but above the November figure at 0.3%. Annual inflation rose to 2.9% as expected, above 2.7% in November. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, less than expectation of 0.3% and month ago at 0.3%. On an annual basis, core CPI rose 3.2%, below expectations. Equity markets surged on weaker than expected core inflation and bond traders are once again pricing in two rate cuts in 2025.
Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report December soybean crush reached a record 205.5 million bushels. If realized, that would be up 6.4% from November and 5.2% above year-ago. It would also top the current all-time high of 200 million bu. from October. The report will include crush data from two facilities that opened last year in Cherryvale, Kansas, and Casselton, North Dakota, for the first time, NOPA told Reuters. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Dec. 31 were projected to rise to 1.253 billion pounds.
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack today will unveil updates on USDA’s efforts to expand revenue and market opportunities for biofuel producers via climate-smart agriculture markets. Key initiatives include domestic biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel, which aim to bolster opportunities for American agriculture and rural communities in the long term.
U.S. imports from China finished 2024 strong as some companies stockpiled shipments ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs that could revive a trade war between the two countries. The equivalent of 451,000 40-foot containers of goods from China landed at U.S. ports in December, a 14.5% jump from year-ago, according to trade data supplier Descartes Systems Group. U.S. imports from China rose 15% from the previous year in 2024.
CORN: March corn futures climbed near recent highs overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at yesterday’s high of $4.79 3/4, which is backed by $4.85. Tentative support comes in at $4.75, while additional selling targets $4.73 1/2 support.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures made up a portion of Tuesday’s loss overnight. Initial resistance stands at $10.53 though bulls are ultimately targeting yesterday’s for-the-move high of $10.64. Support comes in at $10.43 1/2 then $10.33 1/2 on profit-taking.
WHEAT: March SRW futures consolidated near recent highs overnight. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.43 1/4, the 20-day moving average, which is backed by $5.30 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as futures maintain a tight uptrend on the daily bar chart, though continued profit-taking could limit gains after the open. February live cattle futures continue in a tight, steep uptrend on the daily bar chart, testing support on Tuesday and closing above it. Light cash trade coming in at the upper end of last week’s price range suggests cash cattle prices may be steady/firmer again this week, which remains supportive for futures that are trading at a discount to the cash market. Wholesale beef prices were mixed Tuesday, as Choice fell 37 cents to $332.98 while Select climbed $1.14 to $318.71.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as premiums to the cash market and overbought conditions in futures are likely to weigh on prices, though recent bullish momentum could continue to drive prices higher. Recent strength in the cash index has encouraged traders that a seasonal low could be in place, as traders have built premiums in February futures to $2.635 above today’s cash quote. The CME lean hog index is up 23 cents to $80.99 as of Jan. 13, the second daily gain after the recent string of losses. Pork cutout has stabilized near $90.00, rising a penny to $90.21 yesterday. Modest losses in all cuts were offset by gains in loins.