GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans built on Wednesday’s corrective gains overnight while corn and wheat struggled to build on recent strength. Markets remain keyed in on newswires for updates regarding tariffs. Outside markets are mixed this morning as equity futures are solidly lower, negating yesterday’s gain, while front-month crude oil futures are consolidating near recent lows and the U.S dollar index is around 350 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 20,000 MT of soyoil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
President Donald Trump is considering exempting certain agricultural products from tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins telling Bloomberg “everything is on the table.” Rollins specifically mentioned potash and fertilizer as examples of products that could potentially receive exemptions. Government data shows at least 90% of potash consumption volume in the U.S. is fed by imports, with 80% of all potash coming from Canada. Additional products that might be considered for exemptions include nitrogen, other fertilizers, seed and farming equipment, all mentioned by House Ag Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) as products he’s pushing for exemptions. The Trump administration is still in the process of deliberating which ag products might receive relief from tariffs, with considerations part of a broader effort to mitigate the potential negative impacts on the U.S. agricultural sector.
China is expecting to produce another bumper wheat crop this year due to favorable weather, a COFCO International executive said, with rising domestic supplies likely to reduce the need for imports. Duan Chen, associate hedging manager with COFCO International, said China’s winter wheat crop is stable and strong production is expected under normal weather, without providing a specific estimate. Besides higher output, stagnant consumption has led to excess wheat supplies, which COFCO International expects to grow in 2025-26.
Export sales for the week ended Feb. 27:
Corn: Net sales of 909,100 MT for 2024-25 were up 15% from the previous week but down 25% from the four-week average. Sales came in the upper end of pre-report expectations of 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 352,900 MT for 2024-25 were down 14% from the previous week but steady with the four-week average. Sales were in the lower end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 550,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 MT for 2024-25 were up 26% from last week but down 25% from the four-week average. Sales fell in the middle of expectations ranging from 225,000 to 450,000 MT.
CORN: May corn futures saw modest selling overnight. Bulls will look to overcome resistance at $4.61 1/2 then $4.65 to avoid a potential bear flag on the daily bar chart. Continued selling finds support at the psychological $4.50 mark then Tuesday’s low of $4.42 1/2.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw continued strength overnight. Resistance stands at the overnight high of $10.22 3/4 then the 10-day moving average at $10.26. Support comes in at $10.11 3/4 then the psychological $10.00 mark on a reversal back lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls struggled to overcome psychological $5.50 resistance, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $5.61 3/4. Support comes in at $5.43 1/2 then $5.36 3/4 on continued weakness.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Yesterday’s followthrough buying marked a significant shift in market sentiment, likely giving feedlots confidence to hold out for higher packer bids in the next week or so. Cash trade this week remains light, with just 390 head trading hands at $195.00 in Kansas and Iowa. Wholesale beef prices pulled back on Wednesday as Choice cutout fell $1.33 to $313.54 while Select sunk $1.49 to $302.53. USDA reported net beef sales of 13,400 MT for 2025, down 27% from the previous week and 31% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Wednesday’s strength. Reports that the U.S. is dropping tariffs on autos from Mexico has traders thinking a broader deal could be close at hand. The cash market remains choppy as the CME lean hog index is down 2 cents to $90.20 as of March 4 after rising the previous three days. Pork cutout reversed recent strength as well, falling $1.29 to $96.48 with just ribs posting gains on the day. Movement fell to 237.9 loads, disappointing given lower prices. USDA reported net pork sales of 42,400 MT for 2025, up 32% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average.