GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 6 to 8 cents higher; HRS 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each posted solid gains overnight alongside most risk assets. Soybeans led the way higher as they continue to bounce from a more-than three-month low. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 240,000 MT of corn for delivery to Spain during the 2024-25 marketing year.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is to present the administration’s 2025 trade policy agenda to the Senate Finance Committee today, where he is likely to face tough questions about the tariffs’ impact. President Donald Trump has argued that tariffs are crucial for restoring the U.S. as a manufacturing power, reducing trade deficits and raising government revenue. Greer plans to argue that Trump’s tariff strategy is “already bearing fruit,” according to a copy of his prepared remarks. “Nearly 50 countries have approached me to discuss the president’s new policy and explore how to achieve reciprocity,” he plans to say. Of note: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters markets need to see specific trade negotiations for things to calm down. “The markets are not going to cease in voting no-confidence until they begin to see that,” said Tillis, who’s up for re-election in 2026. Tillis has warned that the tariffs could even undermine Republicans’ reconciliation bill.
The European Union is preparing to impose tariffs of up to 25% on select U.S. goods, but will notably exclude high-profile items like bourbon, wine and dairy products, according to the Financial Times. Under the proposed plan, products such as orange juice, poultry and soybeans will be targeted, though with varying rates: 10% instead of 25% for some, and a delayed implementation for others. Tariffs will be staggered between April 15 and Dec. 1, with soybean levies postponed until the latter date. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič emphasized a strategic approach: “We are not in the business of tit-for-tat or penny for penny,” noting that the list was shaped in consultation with EU member states. Final approval is expected Wednesday.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop 48% “good” to “excellent” and 21% “poor” to “very poor” in the initial ratings of the spring. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop opened spring at 324.7, down 14.6 points from last fall and 20.5 points below year-ago. The SRW crop declined 13.1 points from last fall to 366.4, down 7.4 points from last year. Each of the HRW states aside from Montana showed deterioration in crop conditions during winter. For SRW, conditions declined in each of the states during winter except for Indiana and North Carolina. Click here for details.
CORN: May corn futures continue to work higher. Bulls next objective is closing prices above 40-day moving average resistance at $4.68, while additional strength eyes $4.70 1/4 resistance. Selling pressure finds support at $4.64 1/2 then the 10-day moving average at $4.61.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to bounce. Overnight gains stopped shy of psychological $10.00 resistance, which is bolstered by the 10-day moving average at $10.03. Support comes in at $9.85 then $9.77 on a reversal back lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw followthrough strength overnight. Gains stopped shy of 20-day moving average resistance at $5.45, which is backed by the psychological $5.50 mark. Support lies at $5.36 3/4 then $5.28 1/4 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent liquidation selling pressure. Price action has diverged from cash fundamentals as futures are trading well below the cash market, which could draw corrective buying after the open. A seeming easing of risk-aversion in the general marketplace overnight could help support prices today as well. Last week’s cash cattle average fell $1.00 to $211.14. Wholesale beef saw strength Monday as Choice cutout rose $1.05 to $339.50 while Select rose $2.12 to $319.30.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. April lean hogs have been supported by discounts to the cash market but deferred contracts are in liquidation mode. The CME lean hog index is down another 17 cents to $88.19 as of April 4, a fresh for-the-move low. June futures finished $1.86 above today’s cash quote, indicating a pessimistic view of normal summer strength. Pork cutout rose $1.50 to $97.27 yesterday, supported by strong gains in ribs and loins.