GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 5 to 7 cents higher; HRW 7 to 9 cents higher; HRS 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: The grain and oilseed markets shook off extensive selling pressure in equity futures overnight, each posting gains in the overnight session. Corn continues to lead strength while soybeans and wheat are both nearing key resistance. Outside markets are mixed this morning as both the U.S. dollar index and front-month crude futures are sharply lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 198,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The White House released an executive order signed by President Donald Trump to put the higher tariffs in place on Chinese goods, moving the additional tariffs from 34% to 84%, reflecting the additional 50% duty that Trump ordered after China retaliated by imposing a 34% tariff on imports of U.S. goods. The order also increases the tariffs on de minimis items (those with a value under $800) to 90% from a prior 30% and the dollar level from May 2 to June 1 from $25 to $275 and from June 1 forward from $50 to $150. U.S. duties on Chinese imports nearly doubled to 104% (two existing 10% tranches, a newly implemented 34% reciprocal tariff and an added 50% penalty tariff for failing to remove its own 34% tariff after the U.S. reciprocal action) on Wednesday.
China fired back at the U.S. with a sweeping 50% tariff on all American imports, mirroring Trump’s latest move to double tariffs on Chinese goods. In a strongly worded statement, China’s commerce ministry declared its resolve to “fight the trade war to the end.” The countermeasures from Beijing are scheduled to go into effect on Thursday and would raise China’s total additional tariffs to 84%. The tit-for-tat escalation marks a significant intensification in the trade standoff, with global markets bracing for broader fallout.
The Trump administration is considering softening its proposed fee on China-linked ships visiting U.S. ports after a flood of negative feedback from industries that said the idea could be economically devastating, sources told Reuters. Among the changes under consideration are delayed implementation and new fee structures designed to reduce the overall cost to visiting Chinese vessels. Not all of the proposed multimillion-dollar fees for Chinese-built ships to dock at U.S. ports will be implemented and may not be cumulative. The administration was considering is charging a fee that is adjusted based on the number of Chinese-built ships in a company’s fleet, one source said.
CORN: May corn futures continue to lead strength. Bulls are seeking to challenge psychological $4.75 resistance on continued strength. Support stands at $4.68 1/4, the 40-day moving average, then $4.63.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures are working higher for the third consecutive session. Resistance at $10.00 is backed by the 20-day moving average at $10.08 1/2. Support comes in at $9.91 then $9.85 on a reversal back lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures pushed higher overnight and are challenging key 20-day moving average resistance at $5.45. Strength above that mark challenges the 40-day at $5.53 1/2. Support stands at $5.39 3/4 then $5.28 1/2 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as liquidation selling is likely to continue to weigh on the market. Cattle futures have traded in tandem with equity markets recently, indicating traders are awaiting a downtick in volatility before halting their long liquidation. Futures continue to trade at hefty discounts to the cash market, though light trade so far this week indicates a sharp cash market downturn is possible. Wholesale beef Tuesday mixed as Choice cutout fell $1.40 to $338.10 while Select climbed $2.76 to $322.06.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of recent selling pressure, though steep discounts to the cash market and technical support could limit losses after the open. Weakness in the CME lean hog index has been minimal as pork cutout bounced early in the week, with the index is down just 3 cents to $88.16 as of April 7. However, cutout reversed lower Tuesday, falling $3.82 to $93.45 as all cuts except ribs posted losses on the day. While prices fell, movement surged to 390.21 loads, indicating robust demand at lower prices.