GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 10 to 12 cents higher; HRS 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led strength overnight with corn following to the upside into the break. Soybeans saw relative weakness most of the session though buying interest picked up this morning. Front-month crude oil futures continue to post modest corrective gains while the U.S. dollar index continues to face weakness, currently down around 125 points.
USDA reported daily export sales of 126,000 MT of corn for delivery to Japan and 195,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations — each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Chinese tariffs against U.S. ag goods started today, however, goods already in transit will be exempt from these additional tariffs until April 12. The new Chinese tariffs affect a wide range of U.S. ag products. Specifically, they include a 15% additional tariff on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton. A 10% additional tariff applies to soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products.
China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products on Saturday, retaliating against levies Ottawa introduced in October. China will apply a 100% tariff to just over $1 billion of Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and pea imports and a 25% duty on $1.6 billion worth of Canadian aquatic products and pork. The tariffs exclude raw canola exports. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on March 20, match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products just over four months ago.
House Republicans on Saturday introduced a stopgap bill aiming to avert a government shutdown by midnight Friday and fund the government through Sept. 30. House Republicans are expected to take swift action on the legislation, eyeing a floor vote on the measure as soon as Tuesday, and then jam the Senate by adjourning the House and putting the onus on Senate Democrats. The plan would trim spending from the 2024 fiscal year (FY) by $13 billion, though below levels previously agreed to for FY 2025 under a bipartisan spending-limits deal struck in 2023. Key economic data this week includes the consumer price index for February on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates Report will be released on Tuesday.
CORN: May corn futures climbed higher late in the overnight session. Gains stopped shy of 10-day moving average resistance at $4.72 3/4, which is reinforced by the psychological $4.75 mark. Support comes in at $4.69 then $4.67 1/4 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to chop near the 10-day moving average. That area marks initial resistance at $10.27, while additional strength targets resistance at $10.35 1/4. Support lies at $10.19 then $10.10 on continued selling pressure.
WHEAT: May SRW futures posted impressive gains overnight. Bulls are eyeing 10-day moving average resistance at $5.60 3/4, which is backed by resistance at $5.68 3/4. Support comes in at $5.54 then the psychological $5.50 mark on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s strength. April live cattle futures surged Friday, closing above the $200.00 mark for the first time in a month. Strength in futures is likely to encourage feedlots to hold out for higher cash bids this week. Last week’s cash average is poised to fall again, though trade remained fairly light through Thursday. Wholesale beef ended Friday higher, with Choice cutout firming $1.78 to $314.90 while Select climbed $2.29 to $305.80.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength. The CME lean hog index continues to chop, which could limit buying interest after the open, as the index is down 28 cents to $89.90 as of March 6. The index continues to chop around the $90.00 level as pork cutout struggles to break above the $100.00 mark. Cutout climbed $1.87 to $98.36 on Friday, led by strength in hams and ribs, though all cuts posted gains on the day. Movement was firm at 314.71 loads, indicating strong underlying demand.