GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 11 to 13 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 6 to 8 cents higher; HRW 8 to 10 cents higher; HRS 6 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each rebounded from Wednesday’s losses overnight. That strength led to maintaining uptrends from early March lows in both corn and wheat. Outside markets saw little support this morning despite producer prices coming in well below expectations, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported producer price inflation was unchanged in February from January, well below the revised 0.6% rise in January and below expectations of 0.3%. Front-month crude oil futures are down modestly while the dollar is around 350 points higher.
Canada announced new 25% counter-tariffs on approximately C$30 billion ($20.8 billion) worth of U.S.-made goods in direct response to the Trump administration’s global levies on steel and aluminum. The Canadian tariffs, which started at 12:01 a.m. ET Thursday, will hit steel products worth roughly $8.7 billion (C$12.6 billion), aluminum products worth $2.08 billion (C$3 billion) and $9.85 billion (C$14.2 billion) of additional imported U.S. goods. Canadian officials emphasized that the measures mirror the U.S. tariffs “dollar for dollar.” Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly criticized the U.S. tariffs as “unjustified and unjustifiable” and plans to discuss the issue with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the upcoming G7 foreign ministers’ meeting.
Conab raised its Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 1.36 MMT to 167.37 MMT. The 2024-25 soybean export forecast was increased 300,000 MT to 105.74 MMT. Conab increased its Brazilian total corn crop outlook by 750,000 MT to 122.76 MMT, despite a 540,000-MT cut to projected safrinha production. The 2024-25 export forecast was maintained at 34 MMT. The forecast over the coming ten days looks almost ideal, with frequent rain expected in Mato Grosso, says World Weather Inc.
Export sales for the week ended March 6:
Corn: Net sales of 967,300 MT for 2024-25 were up 6% from the previous week but down 19% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Japan. Sales came in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 725,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 751,700 MT for 2024-25 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China, Indonesia and the Netherlands. Sales were above pre-report expectations from 275,000 to 700,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 783,400 MT for 2024-25 were up noticeable from the previous week and 83% from the four-week average. Sales were above expectations ranging from 275,000 to 650,000 MT. Panama and South Korea led purchases.
CORN: May corn futures continue in a modest uptrend from the early March low. Bulls are looking to overcome 10-day moving average resistance, currently at $4.69 1/4, which capped gains earlier this week. Support comes in at $4.56 1/4 on a reversal back lower.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures made up most of Wednesday’s loss overnight. Continued strength targets resistance at $10.17, the 10-day moving average, then the psychological $10.25 mark. Support comes in at $10.00 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures rebounded overnight. Bulls overtook initial resistance at $5.59 1/4, marking that area as initial support. Additional selling finds support at $5.54. Resistance stands at $5.66, the 20-day moving average, then $5.70.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher, building on recent technical strength. April live cattle futures closed at a more than one-month high on Wednesday. Feedlots are holding out for higher cash cattle bids as futures have shown impressive strength over the past week, while packers are reluctant to raise bids as cutting margins remain deep in the red. Cash trade has been light so far this week, with just a small amount trading in Kansas at prices steady with a week ago. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed as Choice cutout fell a dime to $321.10 while Select rose 67 cents to $307.53. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,300 MT for 2025, up 7% from the previous week but down 13% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by discounts to the cash market. The CME lean hog index is up 7 cents to $89.77 as of March 11, ending a five-day price slide. April futures continue to trade at a discount to the cash index as weakness in pork cutout tempers bullish sentiment. Pork cutout sunk $3.00 to $94.58 on Wednesday, the lowest since Feb. 20. Losses in bellies led cutout lower, though all cuts posted losses. USDA reported net pork sales of 20,300 MT for 2025 – a marketing-year low, down 52% from the previous week and 35% from the four-week average.