GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Corn saw relative weakness, though buying interest picked up in all three going into the break. Outside markets are modestly supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher on corrective buying while the U.S. dollar index is around 150 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 218,604 MT of corn and 20,000 MT of soyoil for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has dropped his threat to block a Republican stopgap spending bill, allowing the government to avoid a shutdown. Despite Democratic demands for restraints on Elon Musk’s cost-cutting measures, Schumer acknowledged a shutdown would be a worse outcome. While progressives pushed for a showdown to counter President Donald Trump and Musk’s efforts to shrink federal agencies, moderates feared backlash from a government shutdown. In the Senate, 60 votes are needed to pass the GOP continuing resolution (CR) measure. A vote is scheduled for early this afternoon.
Scores of U.S. meat, poultry and dairy facilities are facing potential export disruptions as their registrations with China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) are set to lapse on March 16, with more expirations in April. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) warned that most affected registrations remain unrenewed, despite USDA and FDA requests. While China has continued clearing shipments from lapsed facilities, concerns persist over Beijing’s slow renewal process. A U.S. ag attaché reported China’s non-implementation of key trade agreements is constraining U.S. beef and pork access. If unresolved, USMEF estimates losses of up to $4.125 billion in beef exports and $1.3 billion in pork.
Argentina’s oilseed workers lifted a strike Thursday afternoon that had paralyzed soy processing plants for a day, their union said, after the government called to restart talks with biodiesel firm Explora. A meeting between union officials and Explora is scheduled for next Monday afternoon. SOEA and the Federacion Aceitera complied with the decision in calling off the previously planned strike, but they said Explora was out of compliance in laying off workers and allowing the government to repress a protest.
CORN: May corn futures saw relative weakness overnight. Initial support comes in at $4.60 while additional selling looks to challenge this week’s low of $4.56 1/4. Resistance stands at $4.65 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $4.67 3/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures traded in a tight range overnight. Bulls are looking to challenge 10-day moving average resistance at $10.15 3/4 before tackling downtrend resistance at $10.20. Support lies at the overnight low of $10.05 1/2 then the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Prices were supported by 10-day moving average support at $5.60. Additional selling targets support at $5.46 1/2. Strength looks to overcome 20-day moving average resistance at $5.65 3/4, which is backed by $5.70.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, though futures are likely to be choppy given the lack of direction from the cash market. Cash cattle negotiations remained at a standstill on Thursday as feedlots continue to seek higher bids and packers are not willing to bid up for supplies as margins remain deep in the red. As it stands, it seems this week’s negotiated cash cattle volume will be light. If trade does pick up today, futures will likely quickly reflect cash trading. Wholesale beef ended Thursday lower as Choice cutout fell $1.41 to $319.69 while Select slid 6 cents to $307.47.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by discounts to the cash market, though additional consolidation could limit gains after the open. Recent weakness in the CME lean hog index has tempered lean hog bulls. The index is down 3 cents to $89.74 as of March 12, negating about half of yesterday’s modest gain. Pork cutout climbed $2.71 to $97.29 Thursday, led by a $10.84 surge in volatile bellies. While cutout was higher, movement slowed to 214.64 loads, indicating lower grocer demand at higher prices.