GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 23 to 25 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 8 to 10 cents lower; HRW 7 to 9 cents lower; HRS 5 to 7 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains showed some strength early in the overnight session but reports of China increasing tariffs on U.S. goods sent the grain and oilseed markets spiraling lower alongside most U.S. assets this morning. Front-month crude oil futures are trading on four-year lows, down over $5.00. The U.S. dollar index is around 125 points higher on corrective strength.
China’s finance ministry said it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all U.S. good starting April 10 as a countermeasure to sweeping tariffs imposed by President Trump, which equate to a 54% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing also announced it is adding several U.S. entities to an export control list and classifying others as an “unreliable” entity, as well as limited exports of rare earths, materials critical to EVs and defense. Both sides doubling down leads to a small chance for a swift resolution as previously hoped for. The Trump administration could come back with additional tariffs or other action on China. The report of China increasing tariffs this morning sent markets reeling, erasing gains in index futures and in corn, pushing the S&P to fresh lows.
The US economy added 228K jobs in March 2025, well above a downwardly revised 117K in February and beating forecasts of 135K. It is the strongest figure in three months. Federal government employment declined by 4K, following a loss of 11K jobs in February. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March 2025, the highest level since November and slightly above market expectations of 4.1%.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on U.S.-made cars that do not comply with the USMCA (CUSMA) agreement, retaliating against President Donald Trump’s sweeping global auto tariffs. The U.S. tariffs, which target over $460 billion in auto imports annually, have already led to significant production halts and layoffs across North America — including 3,200 Canadian, 2,600 Mexican, and 900 American workers, primarily from Stellantis NV facilities. Carney emphasized that the countermeasures are carefully designed to minimize domestic fallout while maximizing impact in the U.S., sparing auto parts and Mexican-made cars to protect Canada’s integrated manufacturing system.
CORN: May corn futures turned back lower this morning. Psychological $4.50 support capped overnight losses, while additional selling finds support at the march low at $4.42. Bulls are seeking to cancel resistance at $4.57, the 10-day moving average, on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw sharp selling overnight. Continued selling finds support at $9.80 then the psychological $9.75 mark. Bulls are seeking to reclaim support at $9.91 on a bounce, while additional strength finds resistance at $10.00.
WHEAT: May SRW futures are back near yesterday’s lows. Tentative support lies at $5.25 though bears are eyeing the contract low of $5.17 1/2. Resistance stands at $5.36 then the 10-day moving average at $5.38 1/4 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone given additional risk-off selling pressure. Big discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cash trade remains light so far this week at modestly lower prices. Cash trade is averaging $210.00 so far, though movement remains light at just 266 head. Choice cutout is down another $1.53 to $338.37, the second consecutive daily decline. Select fell 99 cents to $317.84 Thursday, bringing the Choice/Select spread to $20.53.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone given risk-off selling pressure in outside markets again this morning, but stiff technical support from recent lows could stifle losses after the open. The CME lean hog index reversed from recent gains, falling 8 cents to $88.72 as of April 2, ending a two-day bump higher. Pork cutout climbed $1.11 to $94.81 Thursday, led by a $7.04 jump in bellies. Cutout climbed despite another steep downtick in bellies. Movement remained strong at 347.76 loads indicating higher demand at lower prices.