GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each faced selling pressure overnight. Buying interest modestly picked up in each going into the break. Outside markets are quiet this morning despite the highly anticipated release of non-farm payrolls. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher on corrective buying while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 143k jobs in January, well below an upwardly revised 307k gain in December and forecasts of 170k. Despite lower than expected jobs growth, the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0% in January, the lowest since May 2024 and below expectations of 4.1%. Despite upward revisions for November and December, overall 2024 jobs were revised about 600k lower.
China’s government added two American firms — biotech company Illumina and fashion retailer PVH Group, owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger — to its unreliable entities list, saying they “violated normal market trading principles.” The move significantly hampers the companies’ ability to do business in China.
China opposes the U.S. “smearing and sabotage” of the Belt and Road Initiative in Panama through “pressure and coercion,” its foreign ministry said, after the Central American nation decided to exit the program. Panama has formally presented a document to exit the Belt and Road Initiative, President Jose Raul Mulino said on Thursday, after recently meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Mulino faces a crucial test in a call today with President Donald Trump. While Panama has already made concessions, including restricting Chinese influence and cooperating on border security, Mulino’s only leverage lies in legal arguments, diplomacy and a strategic appeal to Trump’s interests, the Wall Street Journal reports. It says that while Panama remains one of the U.S.’s closest allies in the region, Mulino’s leadership will be tested as he navigates this high-stakes geopolitical showdown.
Jamieson Greer, President Trump’s nominee for U.S. Trade Representative, outlined key trade policy goals, focusing on agricultural markets, biofuels and China’s Phase 1 trade deal. Greer wants to open new markets for U.S. agricultural exports, targeting high tariff barriers in countries like India and Turkey. He pledges to reassess China’s compliance with the Phase 1 trade deal, which fell short of purchase commitments, reaching only about 58% of its commitments by the end of 2021. Greer seeks to lower tariff barriers, particularly addressing Brazil’s ethanol tariffs and the UK’s potential restrictions on crop-based biofuels. With the global sustainable aviation fuel market expected to grow significantly, Greer and U.S. lawmakers see an opportunity for American biofuel feedstocks to meet this demand. His trade strategy approach leans toward targeted trade policies rather than sweeping tariffs, drawing from his experience with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. This aligns with concerns from some industry representatives about potential retaliation if the U.S. implements across-the-board tariffs.
CORN: March corn futures continue to consolidate near recent highs. Initial support stands at $4.90 with additional selling looking to overcome support at $4.84 1/4. Resistance comes in at $4.95 then this week’s for-the-move high of $4.98 1/2.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures faced selling pressure overnight. Prices poked below the 10-day moving average before bouncing from that level, marking it as initial support at $10.54 1/2. Additional selling finds support at $10.50. Resistance stands at the 200-day moving average at $10.65 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw profit-taking overnight. Additional selling pressure finds support at $5.77, which is reinforced by support at $5.68 1/2, the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving average stands as resistance at $5.92, which is reinforced by the psychological $6.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s breakdown, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cattle futures continue to face liquidation selling pressure, which has drug the cash market lower as negotiations picked up mid-week. On average, cash cattle have declined around $3.00, ending the extended string of record prices. Wholesale beef ended Thursday mixed as Choice cutout fell $1.36 to $323.98, while Select rose 44 cents to $314.77.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical selling pressure continues to provide headwinds for bulls. April lean hog futures continue to trade in the upper end of the recent range, topping out around $92.00, which continues to serve as stiff resistance. The CME lean hog index continues to work higher seasonally, climbing 45 cents to $85.05 as of Feb. 5. Wholesale pork climbed to a fresh for-the-move high on Thursday, rising $1.81 to $95.64, led by strength in butts, loins and bellies.